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CIO Insights 1Q26

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Wide range of investment strategies, research updates and market insights including asset allocation, equity strategy, and more.

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Investment Strategy and Market Insights | DBS Treasures

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CIO Asset Allocation


Cross-currents: Macro resilience vs policy concerns. The S&amp;P 500 has staged a remarkable rebound since the trough of the &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; sell-down, fuelled no less by Trump&rsquo;s v...

US Equities 4Q25 | Navigating Cross-currents


European equities have largely traded sideways since March after a strong start to the year, reflecting weaker earnings momentum and elevated valuations after the strong price moves. Looking ahead, w...

Europe Equities 4Q25 | Pause and Refresh


The &ldquo;everything rally&rdquo; is here. From technology stocks to gold and cryptocurrencies, risk assets have shot through the roof in 2025. This extraordinary melt-up is set to persist as the Fe...

Asset Allocation 4Q25: The Rise of Fiscal Dominance


Rate cut catalysts back on the table. Signs of labour market weakness and stable inflation in the US saw the Fed implement a much anticipated 25 bps rate cut in September. A 22k reading for August no...

Alternatives – Gold: Still Bullish


US government shutdown looms amid impasse at Capitol Hill. The US government is heading for a shutdown as lawmakers at Capitol Hill remain stuck in negotiations over fundings and subsidies. The Democ...

US Government Shutdown: Implications for Risk Assets

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Equity Strategy


The commercial aerospace sector remains well positioned for growth into 2026 despite tariff noise. The demand backdrop remains constructive: global air traffic is expected to grow at around 4% in 202...

Global Aerospace: Cruising Through Turbulence into 2026


Inflation remains sticky. US overall inflation edged up to 3.0% y/y in Sep 2025, with urban food and beverage inflation following at similar trend. After tariff escalations in Apr 2025, when US tarif...

Global Hypermarts: Sticky Inflation Reinforces Grocery Outperformance


Rising hyperscalers capex signals success of AI pilots. After years of heavy AI capex, US hyperscalers are delivering robust growth in their cloud revenue, either meeting or exceeding street expectat...

AI Monetisation Amid Declining Free Cash Flow.


Valuations of S-REITs remain undemanding despite recent rally. S-REITs have risen c.12.5% YTD, supported by easing cost pressures and improving fundamentals. However, we believe valuations remain rea...

Singapore REITs: Declining Benchmark Rates a Tailwind for S-REITs


Strong growth trajectory with Asia Pacific serving as key engine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)&rsquo;s latest forecasts (as of Oct 2025), point to global GDP growth decelerating from 3.3% in...

Global Logistics: Exploring New Fulcrums for Long-term Prospects

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Fixed Income Strategy


Within the G3 space, bond vigilantes featured heavily since the start of the year. However, we should also consider the cyclical aspects as economic/political dynamics shift. Below we lay out our tho...

Global Rates 3Q25: Bond Vigilantes Lurk


Normalising the radical.  It was once upon a time outlandish to even imagine that the US would force some of America&rsquo;s foreign creditors to swap their bills and other short-term US debt into ul...

Credit Strategy | Emerging Concerns About a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”


Nothing makes sense. We began our 2Q25 outlook lamenting about how tough it was to be a bond strategist these days. It just got a lot tougher. President Trump&rsquo;s tariffs have been unmistakably n...

Credit Strategy | The Basis for the Tariff-led Bond Selloff


The upcoming US elections on 5 Nov will be closely scrutinised for key trends that could define the next four years. While the Trump campaign is associated with broader and higher tariffs, wider fisc...

Credit Strategy | Navigating US Elections – An Asian Perspective


Turning of the tides. It takes only moments to alter destinies &ndash; incumbent President Joe Biden&rsquo;s poor showing in the Presidential debates has led to an abrupt end in his bid for re-electi...

The Trump Effect on Bonds

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Global growth to slow on tariff policy uncertainties. Fed&rsquo;s rate cuts, Trump&rsquo;s fiscal stimulus policies, and AI-related capex will stave off recession in the US, but upside risk on inflati...

CIO Insights 4Q25: Ride The Trend

Global growth to slow sharply amid escalating Middle-East conflict, tariff chaos, and policy uncertainties under Trump. Trajectory for lower rates remains despite an expected US inflation bump.

CIO Insights 3Q25: The Global Pivot

Growing risk of a US recession as uncertainty mounts from a tariff war and wavering consumer confidence over DOGE and immigration policies.

CIO Insights 2Q25: Build Resilience Amid Tariffs

Despite the game-changing world of geopolitical tensions and Trump&rsquo;s tariffs, stay invested as the Fed leans on lowering rates in a soft landing economy. Employ our barbell strategy to ensure po...