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CIO Insights 4Q25

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Wide range of investment strategies, research updates and market insights including asset allocation, equity strategy, and more.

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Investment Strategy and Market Insights | DBS Treasures

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CIO Asset Allocation


Cross-currents: Macro resilience vs policy concerns. The S&amp;P 500 has staged a remarkable rebound since the trough of the &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; sell-down, fuelled no less by Trump&rsquo;s v...

US Equities 4Q25 | Navigating Cross-currents


European equities have largely traded sideways since March after a strong start to the year, reflecting weaker earnings momentum and elevated valuations after the strong price moves. Looking ahead, w...

Europe Equities 4Q25 | Pause and Refresh


Rate cut catalysts back on the table. Signs of labour market weakness and stable inflation in the US saw the Fed implement a much anticipated 25 bps rate cut in September. A 22k reading for August no...

Alternatives – Gold: Still Bullish


US government shutdown looms amid impasse at Capitol Hill. The US government is heading for a shutdown as lawmakers at Capitol Hill remain stuck in negotiations over fundings and subsidies. The Democ...

US Government Shutdown: Implications for Risk Assets


Labour vs Inflation Concerns: Sharp divisions in clear sight. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has, as expected, cut the Fed Fund rate by 25 bps at the September meeting. Based on the dot-plo...

FOMC: A Land of Dissonance and Contradictions

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Equity Strategy


Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) markets faced multiple global disruptions in 2025; after the much-anticipated China stimulus blitz at the end of 2024, the region started 2025 with the re-election of Donald Trump...

AxJ Equities 4Q25 | Good Auspices

Japan equity prices have stabilised following the easing of concerns around tariffs and political developments. Expectations are building for a BOJ rate hike within the next six months, which, when co...

Japan Equities 4Q25


It was not easy to lose money in 2025. If one merely studied aggregates, the post-April &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; market performances across a broad swathe of risk assets would suggest that there ...

Credit Quality is Starting to Matter


Tit-for-tat tariffs, again. The perennial dance of tit-for-tat tariffs between China and the US has once again intensified, disproving the optimistic pronouncements of a detente. Last week witnessed ...

China Equities: Renewed Trade Tensions – More Noise Than Actions


Trade tensions, here we go again. In an unexpected turn of events, the US has threatened to impose additional tariffs of up to 100% in retaliation to China&rsquo;s decision to tighten export controls...

Global Technology – What Renewed Trade Tensions Mean for Investors

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Fixed Income Strategy


Within the G3 space, bond vigilantes featured heavily since the start of the year. However, we should also consider the cyclical aspects as economic/political dynamics shift. Below we lay out our tho...

Global Rates 3Q25: Bond Vigilantes Lurk


Normalising the radical.  It was once upon a time outlandish to even imagine that the US would force some of America&rsquo;s foreign creditors to swap their bills and other short-term US debt into ul...

Credit Strategy | Emerging Concerns About a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”


Nothing makes sense. We began our 2Q25 outlook lamenting about how tough it was to be a bond strategist these days. It just got a lot tougher. President Trump&rsquo;s tariffs have been unmistakably n...

Credit Strategy | The Basis for the Tariff-led Bond Selloff


The upcoming US elections on 5 Nov will be closely scrutinised for key trends that could define the next four years. While the Trump campaign is associated with broader and higher tariffs, wider fisc...

Credit Strategy | Navigating US Elections – An Asian Perspective


Turning of the tides. It takes only moments to alter destinies &ndash; incumbent President Joe Biden&rsquo;s poor showing in the Presidential debates has led to an abrupt end in his bid for re-electi...

The Trump Effect on Bonds

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Global growth to slow on tariff policy uncertainties. Fed&rsquo;s rate cuts, Trump&rsquo;s fiscal stimulus policies, and AI-related capex will stave off recession in the US, but upside risk on inflati...

CIO Insights 4Q25: Ride The Trend

Global growth to slow sharply amid escalating Middle-East conflict, tariff chaos, and policy uncertainties under Trump. Trajectory for lower rates remains despite an expected US inflation bump.

CIO Insights 3Q25: The Global Pivot

Growing risk of a US recession as uncertainty mounts from a tariff war and wavering consumer confidence over DOGE and immigration policies.

CIO Insights 2Q25: Build Resilience Amid Tariffs

Despite the game-changing world of geopolitical tensions and Trump&rsquo;s tariffs, stay invested as the Fed leans on lowering rates in a soft landing economy. Employ our barbell strategy to ensure po...