Malaysia: BNM stood pat; preserving monetary ammunition in 2026
OPR maintained at 2.75%.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng23 Jan 2026
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Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% during its first monetary policy decision of 2026. As in the past two meetings when the OPR was left unchanged, the central bank assessed the current monetary policy stance as appropriate and supportive of the economy. This consideration factored in better-than-expected global growth and resilient Malaysian expansion in 2025, which handled the US trade policy uncertainty well, and the 2026 outlook. Malaysia’s real GDP grew by 4.9% last year, slightly above the government’s forecast range of 4.0-4.8%, based on advance estimates, while headline inflation was contained at 1.4%. BNM’s tone showed no urgency to adjust policy settings in the absence of shocks. We therefore expect BNM to hold its OPR steady at 2.75% throughout 2026, remaining patient and preserving monetary ammunition amidst external uncertainties. Short-end Malaysian government securities yields will therefore be stable.

BNM’s baseline expectations for resilient global growth, despite the tariff drag, and continued momentum in Malaysia’s growth suggest that there might not be a need for additional monetary easing if it keeps to the official projection range of 4.0-4.5% in 2026 (DBSf: 4.0%). While Malaysia’s exports are still vulnerable to a slower global trade cycle and geoeconomic risks, they remain resilient in the near term due to the strength of electrical & electronics amidst the global tech boom. Domestic demand remains resilient, backed by healthy household spending and upbeat investment activity. With inflation likely remaining well-behaved in 2026 due to contained domestic cost pressures and modest external spillovers from global commodity prices, it is unlikely to trigger monetary policy action.  



Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]
 
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