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CIO Insights 1Q26

Equities to Watch

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CIO Asset Allocation


US/Japan: Fed independence; Japan snap election in focus. The Fed&rsquo;s independence remains a question. US President Donald Trump expects his Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, to resume rate cuts. H...

Economics Weekly: Politics, Trade, and Budgets



CIO Market Pulse &ndash; Era of Unpredictability

Dollar jumps and gold plunges amid Trump&rsquo;s Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh&rsquo;s reputation as a tough inflation fighter
Yield curve steepenin...

CIO Market Pulse – Regime Change


US &amp; Japan: FOMC pause; BOJ policy dilemma. The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s Open Market Committee has chosen to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged, marking the first pause in half a year. Having c...

Economics Weekly: FOMC’s Prolonged-Pause Tone



CIO Market Pulse &ndash; Era of Unpredictability

Trump&rsquo;s Davos climbdown echoes past tariff reversals; Policy unpredictability to harden US alliances&rsquo; resolve in expanding militarily in...

CIO Market Pulse – Era of Unpredictability


Rising geopolitical noise in early 2026 a boost for oil prices. 2026 has started on somewhat of a strange note, with US asserting its hegemony not only in its immediate neighbourhood, but well across...

Global Oil Majors: Share Price Resilience Amid Geopolitical Uncertainties

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Equity Strategy


Keeping a close watch on potential 10% interest rate cap on credit cards. President Trump continues to push for a temporary one-year interest rate cap of 10% in early 2026 to relieve high borrowing c...

US Banks: Watching Regulatory Changes in 2026


Hong Kong&rsquo;s property market, long battered by interest rate hikes, geopolitical jitters and a post-pandemic hangover, appears poised for a pivot in 2026. After a 24% plunge from its 2021 peak, ...

Hong Kong Property: A Year of Pivot


Indonesia's equity market experienced a significant decline of more than 8% following the index provider&rsquo;s latest free float assessment of local securities. The assessment highlighted concerns ...

Indonesia’s Rebalancing Fears


We see two challenges in the AI space specific to the US. First, the world&rsquo;s biggest large language model (LLM) player, OpenAI, has been losing market share in the enterprise space to Anthropic...

AI: Time to Rotate From US to China


ASEAN equities are poised for continued robust expansion, extending the solid 12% growth delivered in 2025. Earnings momentum is set to accelerate meaningfully to 9% y/y in 2026 from 1% in 2025. Acco...

ASEAN Equities: Entering a Re-acceleration Phase

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Fixed Income Strategy

Bonds have regained hedging properties against equity risk while the purchasing power of cash is eroded under sticky inflation and rate cuts. Favour A/BBB IG credit while maintaining a 5&ndash;7Y port...

Global Credit 1Q26 | Hedge & Seek


It was not easy to lose money in 2025. If one merely studied aggregates, the post-April &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; market performances across a broad swathe of risk assets would suggest that there ...

Credit Quality is Starting to Matter


Within the G3 space, bond vigilantes featured heavily since the start of the year. However, we should also consider the cyclical aspects as economic/political dynamics shift. Below we lay out our tho...

Global Rates 3Q25: Bond Vigilantes Lurk


Normalising the radical.  It was once upon a time outlandish to even imagine that the US would force some of America&rsquo;s foreign creditors to swap their bills and other short-term US debt into ul...

Credit Strategy | Emerging Concerns About a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”


Nothing makes sense. We began our 2Q25 outlook lamenting about how tough it was to be a bond strategist these days. It just got a lot tougher. President Trump&rsquo;s tariffs have been unmistakably n...

Credit Strategy | The Basis for the Tariff-led Bond Selloff

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Fed&rsquo;s policies to end quantitative tightening and cut interest rates, alongside AI-related capex spending, will support US growth. Asia, including China, to resume growth momentum as tariff unce...

CIO Insights 1Q26: The Long Game

Global growth to slow on tariff policy uncertainties. Fed&rsquo;s rate cuts, Trump&rsquo;s fiscal stimulus policies, and AI-related capex will stave off recession in the US, but upside risk on inflati...

CIO Insights 4Q25: Ride The Trend

Global growth to slow sharply amid escalating Middle-East conflict, tariff chaos, and policy uncertainties under Trump. Trajectory for lower rates remains despite an expected US inflation bump.

CIO Insights 3Q25: The Global Pivot

Growing risk of a US recession as uncertainty mounts from a tariff war and wavering consumer confidence over DOGE and immigration policies.

CIO Insights 2Q25: Build Resilience Amid Tariffs

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Wide range of investment strategies, research updates and market insights including asset allocation, equity strategy, and more.