1H26 results in-line with profit alert. Horizon Robotics, a leading Autonomous Driving chip designer and solution provider, recorded revenue growth of 33% y/y to RMB2.05bn, towards the high end of its profit alert range (RMB1.93-2.08bn), with stronger licensing and services revenue (+53% y/y to RMB1.13bn) offsetting slower product solutions growth (+15% y/y to RMB926mn). Gross margin remained stable at 66.0%, also towards the high end of its implied profit alert range, due to higher contribution from high-margin licensing and services revenue. However, company’s operating loss widened 21% y/y to RMB1.28bn on higher R&D expenses (+22% y/y to RMB2.75bn), while adjusted net loss widened 25% y/y to RMB1.67bn, towards the upper end of profit alert guidance (RMB1.4-1.7bn loss).
Revenue outlook trimmed as platform wins take priority. Management slightly lowered FY26 revenue guidance from around 60% y/y growth to RMB5bn+ (c.43%+ y/y growth), while reiterating its >5mn chip shipment target, which it still views as conservative versus 2.22mn shipped in 1H26. At the same time, management is placing less emphasis on standalone HSD shipment targets and detailed product mix, with attention shifting towards new platform wins and subsequent model launches. While we remain confident in >5mn chip deliveries this year, weaker domestic PV sales should weigh on the high-end HSD mix. We trim our chip shipments forecast from 5.4mn to 5.3mn and HSD deliveries from 418k to 286k for FY26.
Business model broadening beyond SoC sales towards IP licensing. Horizon is increasingly extending beyond SoC and software sales into licensing its BPU architecture, AI models and toolchains. BYD is a key example, with its self-developed Xuanji A3 chip using Horizon’s BPU IP, allowing Horizon to participate even where its own SoC is not deployed. Volkswagen/CARIAD should also support medium-term chip and IP revenue from 2027. Together with improving operating leverage, we maintain our view that Horizon can achieve breakeven by 2028, largely dependent on R&D spending discipline.
Maintain BUY, cut TP to HKD7.6 (prev HKD13). We cut our FY26/27/28F revenue estimates by 13%/20%/27% to reflect 1) slower domestic PV sales industry-wide, 2) lower HSD delivery assumptions, 3) de-consolidation of D-Robotics. Our new TP of HKD7.6 is based on 13x 12-month rolling EV/sales, pegged to 2-year historical average (previously 23x). Maintain BUY on Horizon Robotics, as we believe the company will continue to be a market share gainer in the high-end intelligent driving sector.
Results briefing key takeaways
2H26 Ramp, Revenue Outlook & Product Mix. Management expects a much stronger 2H26 as domestic auto demand stabilises and higher-value Journey 6M/6P/6H and HSD solutions ramp. FY26 chip shipment guidance remains above 5mn units, while FY27 shipments are targeted at around 7mn units. FY26 revenue guidance at above RMB5bn, with management expecting a return to volume-and-ASP growth in 2H26 as higher-value urban NOA solutions contribute more meaningfully. Longer term, management continues to target around 50%+ annual revenue growth, with breakeven around 2028.
High-End ADAS Share Gains & Customer Wins. Horizon is increasingly focused on moving from leadership in lower-compute ADAS chips toward becoming China’s leading high-compute intelligent-driving supplier. Urban-NOA-enabled chip share among Chinese domestic brands reached around 23% in 1H26, ranking second, while HSD has secured design wins across China’s top-five domestic OEMs and top-two JV OEMs. Mass production begins from late 2026, with broader contribution expected in 2027. Management believes these platform-level wins, rather than individual model nominations, should provide stronger visibility and allow Horizon to capture a larger share of customers’ future intelligent-driving portfolios.
Win-Tel + ARM-Android Business Model. Horizon is expanding beyond direct chip and HSD software sales toward a more flexible IP-licensing model, allowing OEMs to develop in-house chips or software while still using Horizon’s BPU architecture and tools. Management views this “ARM + Android” model positively because it can generate high-margin licensing and service revenue earlier in the development cycle while creating deeper customer lock-in. Licensing and service revenue rose 52.7% y/y in 1H26 with 90.4% gross margin, and management expects this model to become increasingly important alongside traditional chip sales rather than replace them.
Technology Roadmap, Overseas & L4. Journey 6M will remain the key volume product, while Journey 6P/6H plus HSD target higher-end urban NOA. Journey 7 is being developed for L3/L4 applications with a targeted 2027 launch, while cockpit-driving chip Starry 6P also enters mass production in late 2026. Overseas remains a longer-cycle opportunity: Horizon now covers 24 brands and nearly 60 export models. Management continues to invest heavily in vehicle/cloud large models and next-generation chips, viewing sustained R&D intensity as necessary to lock in the long-term L4 competitive position.
Q1: Chip shipments are weighted to 2H26. Which product line will drive stronger revenue growth: mid‑range J6M or high‑end J6P? What upside can new design wins bring?
A1: Journey 6M is the main volume driver in 2H from a major NEV OEM’s entry‑level AD platform. Higher‑value products including Journey 6P, Journey 6H and HSD software will drive revenue growth. HSD has achieved design wins with China’s top‑5 domestic OEMs and top‑2 joint‑venture OEMs, a unique industry position. Mass production starts late‑2026. These wins will deliver meaningful revenue contributions in 2027 and beyond.
Q2: The company will increase spending on vehicle/cloud large‑model training and next‑gen chip development. How do you balance investment and returns? When will profitability show clear improvement?
A2: High gross margin is the foundation for sustained heavy R&D investment. Current revenue reflects returns from past R&D; today’s R&D spending defines future growth ceiling. Smart driving is a long‑cycle industry requiring saturated investment. Lower R&D spend would lower industry barriers and attract broad competition. Even if high R&D pressure suppresses near‑term profit, heavy spending pushes more OEMs to adopt third‑party suppliers like Horizon. The company targets breakeven around 2028.
Q3: What is the expected HSD shipment scale for 2026‑2027 and key ramp‑up milestones? What is the timeline for Journey 7 (J7) from tape‑out to SOP and revenue contribution?
A3: HSD has design‑win coverage over China’s top‑5 domestic OEMs and top‑2 JV OEMs. One major NEV customer is covered from entry‑level AD to urban high‑end AD with late‑2026 mass‑production start. Chip shipment guidance: over 5 million units in 2026, around 7 million units in 2027. For J7, R&D is progressing smoothly with targeted 2027 market launch. Multiple leading OEMs and Tier-1s have expressed interest in being launch partners. Horizon aims to build J7 into a world‑class autonomous‑driving chip benchmark.

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