India: Weaker than expected GDP won’t affect markets or RBI
RBI focused on tackling inflation
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao1 Sep 2022
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2Q22 (1QFY23) GDP registered 13.5%yoy growth  (4.1% in earlier quarter) before, lower than consensus expectation, but registering a sequential (qoq sa) pickup. Besides an outsized lift from base effects, relaxation of lockdowns benefited urban consumption owing to the resumption in services, including contact intensive sectors. Pick-up in service sector activity contributed to over two-third of the headline growth lift, including trade hotels and transport, and financial real estate activities. Private consumption held ground, as did fixed asset investments on the back on supportive financial conditions, while net exports was a significant drag as high commodity prices fuelled imports. Nominal GDP growth rang in a strong 26.7%yoy rise on high deflators. Notwithstanding the slight miss in Jun22 Q growth vs official projections, the RBI MPC is focused on tackling inflation and the GDP outcome is unlikely to alter the rate hike path. With 140bp worth tightening behind us, we look for 60bp more hikes in the repo rate within this year, which will leave the real rate in positive territory by end-FY23. 

The backward-looking GDP data release is unlikely to be a catalyst for markets. The USDINR’s brief test above 80.0 earlier in the week from a dollar lift, attracted the central bank’s presence, leading the pair to correct sharply to below 79.50. Sentiments on the domestic unit were also bolstered by a return in strong foreign interests in equities ($6.4bn Aug MTD) and debt ($0.48bn). Hopes of material progress in JPMorgan’s discussions on the inclusion of eligible INR debt into a global index has kept a lid on bond yields. Taxation aspects have been a stumbling block in this process, with local press citing unnamed officials yesterday saying that there is unlikely to be any relaxations on that front.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]


 
 
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