RMB to stay supported amid trade diplomacy efforts
RMB stability amid tariff risks.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang9 May 2024
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Chinese President Xi’s visit to France and Hungary this week underscores a desire to improve ties with Europe and arrest rising risks of protectionism. Increased competitiveness of Chinese exports in leading sectors such as EVs are prompting calls for more balanced trade ties in Europe, and with them implicit tariffs threats. Xi’s personal visit and his cognac-diplomacy, with China not imposing tariffs on French cognac, puts China-EU trade relations on a better footing. Given already heightened fears of Chinese competition in Europe and elsewhere, calls for a competitive devaluation of the RMB following JPY weakness are quite wrong.  A stable RMB policy is even more important now to emphasize that China is a responsible trading partner, especially with the RMB already being the most undervalued currency in Asia after the yen. Calls for a competitive devaluation are better directed elsewhere, and we maintain our view of stable USD/CNY fixings going forward, with USD/CNH likely to trade around 7.20-7.30. 

USD/JPY is trading towards 156, which is a level we advise turning more cautious on intervention risks.  BOJ Governor Ueda surprisingly stated on Wednesday that abrupt and one-sided weak yen moves raise uncertainties and are negative for the economy. Given that FX intervention is not part of the BOJ’s remit, such FX jawboning by Ueda is noteworthy and could restrain JPY weakness. It is still not too likely for a weak JPY to precipitate a rate hike, but the BOJ will closely watch its impact on prices and expectations. 

While the BOE left rates unchanged as expected yesterday, there was a small dovish tilt. Ramsden shifted to voting for a cut, though this was not unexpected given his earlier dovish comments. Governor Bailey opens the path for ‘less restrictive rates’ as the MPC sees a faster fading of second round inflation, although he makes no commitment to cutting rates in June. Chief Economist Pill also said that the MPC still need to await more data to have confidence that inflation is subdued. Markets now raise the pricing of a rate cut in June from around 45% to 55%, but GBP/USD still rose above 1.25 amid a broadly softer USD following higher US jobless claims.
 

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]







 

 
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