Rates: Curve steepening is the general trend
Curves are generally upward sloping on fading pessimism.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow9 May 2024
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The theme since the start of the year has been a steepening of curves as pessimism gets faded. Looking at the 3M/10Y segment, the repricing is the greatest in the US, followed closely by Europe, Canada and the UK. Some of this comes from the fading of easing expectations while the remainder can be chalked up to sticky inflation worries and / or increasing term premium. Even after these adjustments, we note that many of the DM curves remain in deep inversion, signalling significant lingering worries about the state of their respective economies. The JGB curve remains the steepest within the G10 space. However, in contrast to peers, the JGB curve did not steepen. This is an interesting development and probably marks a shift in how market participants read the BOJ. Amidst persistent yen weakness and the end of NIRP, risks are building towards a more hawkish BOJ and accordingly, a flatter JGB curve. 

Within emerging Asia (excluding Singapore and Hong Kong where rates track the US closely), curves are generally upward sloping. The CGB curve is notably steepest and that is due to the PBoC stepping up support (keeping frontend rates low) to the economy. For the rest of the region, the pull from higher DM rates is proving difficult to resist and curves have also steepened modestly. That said, the next big leg of steepening will likely only occur when the global monetary easing cycle starts. 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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