USD Rates: Oil shock complicates Fed’s inflation battle
Post-FOMC Treasury curve bear flattened.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow19 Mar 2026
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The US Treasuries curve bear flattened after the FOMC meeting and developments in the Middle East. While the Fed kept rates on hold as widely expected, the shifts in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot-plot were tilted towards stronger growth (2026 and 2027 GDP growth revised to 2.4% and 2.3% respectively, compared to 2.3% and 2,0% previously) and higher inflation (2026 and 2027 core PCE inflation revised to 2.7% and 2.2% respectively, compared to 2.5% and 2.1% previously). Despite the revisions, the median dot-plot was unchanged (one cut each for 2026 ad 2027, albeit with a slightly hawkish skew). In the absence of the Middle East conflict, we think that that there would have been a level shift higher across the yields curve.

The Middle East conflict presents a challenge for the Fed. Goods inflation (driven by tariffs) already looks somewhat sticky. This will be compounded by elevated energy prices; WTI climbed above USD100/barrel amidst reports of Middle Eastern energy infrastructure at risk. While policymakers should in theory look through these developments, energy-related spillovers on the broader CPI basket should not be ignored. In so far as price pressures would likely materialize faster than a material deterioration in US economic activity, the Fed would be reluctant shift any time soon. The market has adjusted accordingly, pricing in barely 60% odds of a cut by the end of the year as short-term inflation expectations continue to climb. Longer-term inflation expectations showed a more muted shift though 10Y break-evens climbed above 2.4%.

Further rise in oil price would be destabilising for expectations. If oil climbs above USD150/barrel, we suspect that 2Y yields could spike towards 3.9-4.0% as rate hikes get seriously mooted. 10Y yields may not rise by much as investors seek safety. However, this should be balanced against downside risks to the economy, which could nudge the Fed to cut quickly down the line. Curve wise, flattening would then be followed by a period of steepening as recession worries eventually take hold.

Other items of note:

Fed Chair Powell indicated that he would not leave the Fed board until the DOJ’s investigation has concluded. No decision has been made on whether he would stay on once the investigation ends (Powell’s term on the Board ends on January 2028).

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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