Reviewing Bessent’s USD remark, FOMC, and MAS policy review
USD’s tone remains weak.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee29 Jan 2026
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US was “absolutely not” intervening to support the JPY and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to a “strong USD policy,” prompting a brief knee-jerk rebound in the USD that markets quickly faded. Credibility was undercut by President Donald Trump’s open indifference to the USD’s decline a day earlier, leaving investors to question whether the policy is upheld in practice rather than rhetoric, much as they do with the Fed’s independence. Bessent’s claim that strong USD flows from sound fundamentals now carries limited weight with US allies and economies targeted by Trump’s trade threats and hegemonic posture, as well as with Republican lawmakers who are uneasy over the harsh implementation of immigration policy and the political pressure on monetary policy. In both cases, markets are guided less by assurances than by observed behaviour.

The FOMC meeting was a non-event. The decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% following three rate cuts was well anticipated. The FOMC statement reiterated familiar themes of solid economic momentum, still-elevated inflation, and tentative signs of labour market stabilisation amid subdued job growth. As expected, Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a 25-bps cut, underscoring President Trump’s continued push for lower rates ahead of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ending in May. When asked for advice to his successor, Powell stressed the need to stay clear of elected politics. Yet the bond futures market continued to price in a resumption of rate cuts in June, betting that a Trump-appointed successor, notably BlackRock’s chief investment officer and portfolio manager, Rick Rieder, could tilt the Fed more decisively dovish.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept unchanged all three parameters – the slope, mid-point, and width – of the SGD NEER policy band at this morning’s policy review. The statement was balanced with a cautiously optimistic tilt, aligning with the higher-than-expected economic growth and inflation readings in 4Q25. Barring shocks to the global economy, the next Survey of Professional Forecasters in March should see few respondents tilting towards an easing in the SGD NEER policy this year, with the bar for tightening still data-dependent. Although the MAS raised the 2026 forecast for headline and core inflation to 1.0-2.0% from 0.5-1.5%, it emphasized that core inflation was normalizing from a period of weakness. While growth is seen as resilient and underpinned by near-term strength in the global AI-driven capex cycle and growth in non-technology-related segments, the output gap is expected to narrow, though it will be positive for the year. As for the price-taker USD/SGD rate, the USD's global trend is clearly in the driver's seat for now.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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