India chartbook: Rupee and multi-pronged response
We assess the rupee, response and BOP dynamics.
Group Research - Econs20 May 2026
  • Global crude prices are up more than 50% since the start of 2026.
  • No convincing resolution to the conflict is in sight yet.
  • This exogenous energy shock has upset the macro-apple cart.
  • Compared to the past, India’s external balances are starting from a much stronger position.
  • We have lifted our USD/INR forecasts into a 95-100 range for the rest of 2026.
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The energy price shock has dealt two-fold impact on the economy, i.e., supply-side constraints (higher input costs, shortage of fuel supplies, shipping delays and weaker rupee), and demand-side effects (rising pump prices, slowing fuel consumption, and tougher economic environment stoked by higher inflation), besides likely El Niño impact on food and likely rural incomes. The policy space is relatively constrained after fiscal and policy stimulus were undertaken last year to offset tariff-related risks. Onset of a likely stagflation-lite shock also restraints the central bank from assuming an expansionary stance. Measures announced to date largely mirror steps undertaken in 2013 (taper tantrum) and 2022 (Russia-Ukraine crisis), with concurrent effort to strengthen both sides of the balance of payment equation - current account (through gold/silver curbs and lower energy demand as prices rise) and financing item i.e., capital account (attract inflows, likely other steps to boost non-FPI/FDI inflows). Notably, the capital account balance (as % of GDP) has been on a moderating path in recent years. We outline our BOP estimates for the year, with a third consecutive annual deficit in the pipeline. While higher US rates might slow investment flows, suitable investment alternatives onshore are required to slow repatriation outflows. We have lifted our USD/INR forecasts into a 95-100 range for the rest of 2026.






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Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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