
AI is driving a structural memory supercycle, with memory’s share of global semiconductor revenue set to jump sharply from 27% in 2025 to around 48% in 2026. This is underpinned by accelerating demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM to support large scale AI training and inference workloads. Robust AI server deployment is lifting pricing, profitability, and capital investment across the broader semiconductor value chain. The cycle is expected to sustain through 2026 and extend beyond 2028/2029. The momentum is driven by sustained AI server build-outs and structurally higher DRAM & NAND content per system, boosting the upcycle beyond current expectations.
Is TurboQuant a real threat to the memory supercycle? Google’s TurboQuant, launched in end Mar 2026, has sparked short-term market fears but is unlikely to derail the AI-driven memory supercycle as it improves the efficiency of inference workloads instead of reducing the structural memory demand. While the technology can compress runtime memory and lower cost per inference, the resulting productivity gains are more likely to accelerate AI adoption and expand total workloads, ultimately sustaining demand for HBM and advanced DRAM. Thus, TurboQuant is better viewed as a cycle extender rather than a cycle breaker as it improves efficiency but does not eliminate core memory demand.
Strong guidance signals durable AI-led memory cycle. Recent results from Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung collectively point to a structurally strong AI-led memory cycle with tight supply conditions likely to persist beyond 2027, underpinned by accelerating demand for HBM and AI server infrastructure. Micron delivered record revenue and guided for another step-up in margins and sales, signalling sustained pricing power and continued capacity expansion to support hyperscaler demand. Meanwhile, Samsung expects a strong surge in profit, driven by strong AI memory demand and limited supply while continuing aggressive investment in next-generation DRAM and HBM capacity to capture the cycle. SK Hynix remains a key beneficiary of the AI build-out as the demand for advanced memory remains robust.

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