Hong Kong 2026 Outlook: Dual-speed Recovery
Strong momentum in financial markets and tourism will anchor growth, while high costs and shifting spending patterns may temper the recovery. Overall, GDP growth in 2026 is projected at about 3%.
Group Research - Econs25 Nov 2025
  • Financial activity should stay strong, supported by Southbound inflows and offshore RMB upgrades.
  • Tourism will remain robust, with mega-events sustaining arrivals and services..
  • Exports are likely to stay resilient, driven by AI electronics and Asia-focused diversification.
  • Domestic retail growth is constrained by value-conscious and cross-border spending.
  • Housing price recovery may be capped by sizable inventory.
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Executive Summary

The economy is poised for a dual-speed recovery. Strong momentum in financial markets and tourism are expected to anchor growth, while structural constraints such as high costs and shifting spending patterns will temper the breadth of the recovery. 2026 GDP growth is projected at around 3.0%.

Growth Drivers

  • Financial Markets: HSI is on track for 30,000, supported by strong Southbound inflows. IPO activity remains robust, led by Mainland dual listings in new-economy sectors.
  • Connectivity: Offshore RMB policy upgrades and growing Middle Eastern ties will deepen Hong Kong’s financial ecosystem and boost demand for professional services.
  • Tourism: Government-backed mega events should sustain arrivals, supporting hospitality and retail.
  • Housing Market: Lower mortgage rates and positive carry underpin demand; supply is set to peak mid-2026, supporting a gradual recovery.
  • Trade: AI-driven electronics and Asia-focused diversification continue to support merchandise exports.


Key Risks

  • Retail and Consumption: Value-conscious spending and cross-border shopping will temper domestic retail growth.
  • Housing Supply: Slower absorption of sizable inventory (~20,479 units) limits price recovery.
  • Global Uncertainty: Payback from 2025 export front-loading, trade policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks may moderate external demand.

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Mo Ji, Ph.D. 纪沫

Chief China Economist - China & Hong Kong 首席中國經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Nathan Chow 周洪禮

Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong 高級經濟學家及策略師 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Byron Lam

Economist
[email protected]


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