Markets likely misread Yellen on the JPY
Misreading Yellen on the JPY.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee9 May 2024
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The DXY Index appreciated a second day to 105.55, slightly above Tuesday’s 105.41 level. DXY initially rose to 105.65 during the Asian session, driven by a renewed decline in the JPY, which fell by 0.5% to 155.55 vs. USD on Wednesday. The weakening JPY was partly balanced by a 0.05% appreciation of the CHF to 0.9080 per USD and a barely changed CAD from Tuesday’s 1.3725 vs. USD. Throughout the European and US sessions, DXY fluctuated narrowly between 105.65 and 105.45. A similar lack of direction was observed in the EUR and the GBP, which traded in ranges of 1.0735-1.0757 and 1.2470-1.2505, respectively. Today, GBP may face downward pressure if the Bank of England increases confidence in its inflation outlook and leans towards rate cuts this year. 



The JPY gave back some gains in the first three days of this week after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s JPY remarks, which markets have likely misinterpreted. Yellen’s reference to sharp fluctuations might relate to USD/JPY’s rapid rise from 140 to 160 per USD in the first four months of this year rather than concerns about its fall to 152 last week – near the level when Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul issued a trilateral statement about consulting closely on foreign exchange rate markets to address disorderly and excessive exchange rate volatility. It makes more sense for the US Treasury Department to discourage interventions when USD/JPY settles in a lower 145-150 range, in line with the 10Y US-Japan bond differential. 

In this regard, the Fed has signaled a moderation, not a cessation, of its rate cut plans, while the Bank of Japan has hinted at a second hike this year. This shift in the narrative of US exceptionalism, which had been supporting the USD, has been further weakened by the lower-than-expected US GDP growth and nonfarm payrolls. A lower US CPI reading next week could potentially reinforce this trend by undermining the sticky inflation narrative, thereby impacting the USD and JPY exchange rates.


Quote of the day
“We are infected by our own misunderstanding of how our own minds work.”
      Kevin Kelley

9 May in history
The modern Mother's Day came about in 1914 when President Woodrow Wilson established the second Sunday in May as Mother's Day.

 





Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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