USD stalls on less exceptional growth and higher inflation
Tempered USD strength; JPY on watch.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang26 Apr 2024
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Softer US growth suggests a lesser extent of US exceptionalism, and a narrowing growth differential may keep the USD in check. US Q1 GDP disappointed expectations at 1.6% saar (Q4: 3.4%), while Q1 core PCE inflation also surprised on the upside at 3.7% saar. This complicates the picture for Fed in deciding when to cut rates, as inflation stays sticky even as income growth slows. Markets now see a Sep rate cut as 70:30, compared to fully pricing in a Sep cut earlier. FOMC next week could see the Fed placing greater weight on inflation returning to target.

The BOJ meets today, and no policy change is expected. Given rising wages and prolonged JPY weakness, the BOJ could revise up its inflation forecast for FY25, which may see it tilting towards a slightly more hawkish guidance on rates and limiting JGB purchases. Still, softer than expected Tokyo CPI inflation for April today suggests that any rate move will likely be some way off in the future. Risk of intervention is the larger factor dominating USD/JPY in the present. With USD/JPY trading close to 156, a level that is associated with significant risks of JPY buying intervention based on our model, risk-reward could favour USD/JPY shorts now.

With South Korea’s 1Q GDP growth beating all estimates at 3.4% YoY (4Q: 2.2%), KRW should find a better footing. Korea’s rate cut expectations have been steadily pushed out since March, due to KRW depreciation as well as stronger growth this week. Strong US 1Q tech earnings overnight could help support Korean equity inflows, supporting the KRW for now.

RMB has been stable, with USD/CNH trading around 7.25. Overnight, there are media reports that Trump advisors are seeking to impose measures on countries that are engaging in bilateral trade without the USD. This could be targeting China, which has increased trade with Russia using the RMB, and discussed de-dollarization at the BRICS summit last August. US concerns of de-dollarization amongst EM countries are quite overstated, with the USD reserve currency status being supported by freedom of convertibility, deep capital markets, and credible monetary policy. Nonetheless, threats of export controls and tariffs do introduce risks to US-Chinese trade, and the RMB could see a higher geopolitical risk premium if the Trump campaign is to gain momentum.


Quote of the day
" I have not come to China to hold forth on what divides us, but to build on what binds us. I have not come to dwell on a closed-door past, but to urge that Americans and Chinese look to the future, because together we can and will make tomorrow a better day.”
      Ronald Reagan







Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

 

 
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