
The Asian trading session is opening under pressure this Monday morning. Brent crude oil prices opened 13% higher to USD82/barrel on the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalation of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran over the weekend. The EU and UK reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have sent VHF messages to vessels in the Gulf stating that no ship is allowed to pass the strait. Major global shipping firms have suspended all vessel transits through the strait until further notice.
Dow futures look to open 500 points lower, reflecting downside risks to the global economy. Investors are seeking haven primarily in gold and the USD, with the export-oriented CHF struggling to do the same amid negative spillovers into the EUR and GBP. This year’s top performer, AUD, should give up some of its pro-cyclical strength. Elevated oil prices could upset the MYR’s rally by keeping the Fed vigilant on inflation and rendering the IDR vulnerable to fiscal slippage risk.
The current conflict between the US/Israel and Iran represents a significant break from the “proxy war” and “managed escalation” patterns seen in 2023-2025 into direct confrontation in 2026. Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the objective of the US/Israel has shifted from deterrence to regime change in a nuclear-capable nation. The current strikes demonstrated that there are no longer red lines regarding direct attacks on sovereign territory and central government figures.
The unilateral nature of US President Trump’s "Operation Epic Fury" has created a constitutional flashpoint in Washington. Democratic lawmakers have pushed for a War Powers Resolution vote to halt further unauthorized hostilities. The President must notify Congress in writing within 48 hours of committing troops to a conflict. Armed forces are forbidden from remaining for more than 60 days without a formal declaration of war or specific statutory authorization. If none is granted, the President has an additional 30 days to safely withdraw the troops. Congress passed the War Powers Resolution of 1973 to avoid another undeclared conflict like the Vietnam War. Even if the lower and upper houses pass the resolution, they will fall short of the two-thirds majority needed to override an anticipated presidential veto.
The Iranian conflict has cast doubt on President Trump’s scheduled visit to China (March 31-April 2), where he hoped to transition the temporary trade truce into formalizing a more permanent trade agreement. While the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs under IEEPA weakened his bargaining leverage, the Iranian crisis has increased great power rivalry, which could postpone or cancel his trip. Meanwhile, focus will turn to the National People's Congress, which officially convenes on March 5. As Beijing prepares to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan, Chinese leaders are expected to signal economic resilience in the wake of the US tariff ruling. The gathering will also be a platform for China to address the escalating Middle East conflict, with officials already vowing to "resolutely safeguard" their trade interests and energy security against any new US sanctions or military spillover. China may slow or halt the CNY’s appreciation after guiding the USD/CNY daily fixing lower by 2.7% since October.
Quote of the Day
"Let me tell you something that we Israelis have against Moses. He took us 40 years through the desert in order to bring us to the one spot in the Middle East that has no oil!”
Golda Meir (Israeli Prime Minister during the 1973 Yom Kippur War)
March 2 in history
Construction on the Sydney Opera House started in 1959. Although originally estimated to cost $7 million and take four years, the project ultimately took over 14 years and $102 million to complete, opening in 1973.




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