Singapore: Steeper SGD policy band slope for inflation defence
Our takeaways from the MAS April 2026 policy review.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng14 Apr 2026
  • The MAS slightly increased the slope of the SGD NEER policy band to curb rising imported inflation…
  • …, while growth resilience is being tested.
  • We raise our 2026 core and headline inflation forecasts to 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively.
  • Advance GDP growth in 1Q26 was resilient, but growth faces downside risks in the coming quarters.
  • The MAS would want to maintain policy flexibility given considerable uncertainties from Middle East.
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Policy normalisation with slight slope increase

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) slightly increased the slope of the SGD NEER policy band today, in line with our expectations. We were also correct that this year’s core inflation forecast would be revised to 1.5-2.5% from 1.0-2.0% previously. Together, the central bank has positioned its exchange rate policy to balance the immediate imported inflation risks from the Middle East oil shock over the next few quarters, amid expectations for the positive output gap to narrow and average around 0% over the course of the year, driven by slower global growth, including Singapore. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) will update its 2026 GDP growth outlook, currently at 2.0-4.0%, in May. 

Today’s decision is consistent with our call for the central bank to normalise the policy band by taking back the slope reductions in January and April 2025. Given the considerable risks posed to inflation from elevated oil prices, and the economy from energy supply disruptions, the MAS would want to maintain policy flexibility, backed by its readiness to curb excessive volatility in the SGD NEER, alongside its decision not to adjust the centre or the width of the band. According to our model, the SGD NEER has averaged 1.7% above the band’s mid-point after Operation Epic Fury. The latest slope adjustment should allow the SGD NEER to increase faster year-on-year (yoy) with the new inflation forecasts. As for USD/SGD, it remains tied to the DXY Index as a price taker (see FX Quarterly 1Q 26: The USD’s war-driven haven trap).  

Higher inflation outlook

The MAS’s decision to slightly steepen the appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band came amid expectations of higher inflation in 2026 than previously envisaged. Singapore’s imported cost pressures have increased due to the Iran-centred Middle East conflict. As a price taker, the city-state will need to absorb the price spikes across energy and fertilisers, dealt by a fresh supply shock caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late-February.

We raise our Singapore core and headline inflation forecasts for 2026 to 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively (from 1.6% and 1.5%), aligned with the MAS’s upwardly revised projections. We expect core and headline inflation to rise further and breach 2.0% yoy in 3Q26, from their respective averages of 1.2% yoy and 1.3% yoy in January-February 2026, after edging up since 4Q25 from a period of weakness. The inflation increase is nascent and faces broadening upside risks.

Growth resilience is tested by Iran war shock

The MAS’s decision also came amid still-resilient near-term economic growth dynamics, but with significant downside uncertainties in the coming quarters. Singapore’s economy entered 2026 on a firm footing, reflected in resilient real GDP growth of 4.6% yoy and -0.3% qoq sa in 1Q26 (but slower than 5.7% yoy and 1.3% qoq sa in 4Q25), according to MTI’s advance estimates. We expect this resilience to be tested as the year progresses, with the highly open economy facing renewed geopolitical shocks. We maintain our 2026 real GDP growth forecast at 2.8%, but see downside external risks.

Overall, our Singapore growth expectations appear aligned with the MAS’s view for GDP growth to slow over the course of 2026. Reflecting this, the central bank expects the output gap to average around 0% in 2026, downgrading from a positive output gap for this year as a whole in its January assessment. Singapore’s economy is confronting Middle East uncertainties from a relatively strong position, but the MAS would want to maintain policy flexibility in this highly uncertain external environment.

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Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

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