
Click here to read the full report
Unchanged policy settings for a third review
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s decision to keep unchanged all three parameters – the slope, mid-point, and width – of the SGD NEER policy band was well anticipated. So was the decision to revise up the 2026 forecasts for headline and core inflation to 1.0-2.0% from 0.5-1.5% projected in October 2025. The revision reflected the higher-than-expected inflation in 4Q25, which was congruent to the stronger-than-expected growth outcome.
The MAS’s statement was balanced with a cautiously optimistic tilt. Barring shocks to the global economy, the next MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters in March should see few, if any, respondents tilting towards an easing in the SGD NEER policy this year, with the bar for tightening still high and data dependent.
Per our model, the current settings of the policy band have maintained SGD NEER appreciation in a 0-2% YoY range, which still aligns with the new 1.0-2.0% inflation forecasts. Any case for a steeper policy slope later in the year will hinge on a material upward revision to the inflation outlook, specifically, possible evidence that core inflation will average above 2% YoY on a sustained basis. For now, the MAS reckoned that core inflation was normalising from a period of weakness, likely to hold below 2% for most of the year (see PDF for additional analysis on inflation and growth, as well as our forecasts).
USD/SGD outlook
As for the price-taker USD/SGD rate, our base case is for USD/SGD to trade in a 1.25-1.30 range over January-September, consistent with our expectation for the DXY to stay within in a 95-100 range. Should the USD weakness that began last Friday extend and pull the DXY into a lower 90-95 range, USD/SGD will likely decline into 1.20-1.25.
Click here to read the full report
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates & Digital Assets)
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply. The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.