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Equities: US markets post strongest first-quarter performance
US equities hit all-time highs to close out the quarter. The Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and 0.4% respectively for the week, capping off equities’ best start to the year since...
投資總監辦公室1 Apr 2024
  • Equities: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index close at all-time highs in 1Q; China continues to be weighed down by property sector downturn
  • Credit: Economic and fiscal concerns highlight that elevated short-term rates are unsustainable, and rates are likely close to their peak. Prefer 3 - 5Y duration credit in anticipation of a lower rate
  • FX: Given market’s inclination to reduce rate cut bets, DXY will soften again if Friday’s US jobs data disappoints
  • Rates: Current pricing in USD rates is appropriate; but pricing at front of the curve has turned hawkish
  • The Week Ahead: Keep a lookout for US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls; China PMI number
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US equities hit all-time highs to close out the quarter. The Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and 0.4% respectively for the week, capping off equities’ best start to the year since 2019. Evidently, the rally is broadening as the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.9%, well ahead of the 0.7% from the market-weighted S&P 500 index. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment was also revised upwards to its highest level in over two years, reflecting consumer’s steady economic perception which could bode well for market stability. Across the pond, the Euro STOXX 50 and DAX rose 1.0% and 1.6% respectively, despite Germany’s economy showing signs of significant slowdown and UK slipping into recession in 4Q23.

In Asia, SHCOMP fell 0.2%, reflecting the ongoing property sector downturn in China that is weighing on consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the focus in Japan was on the depreciating yen – JPY hit its weakest level against the USD despite the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising rates to positive territory for the first time in 17 years. The Nikkei 225 was down 1.3% for the week.

Topic in focus: US equities – Maintain conviction view on tech-related plays; turning positive on energy. Our high conviction calls on tech-related sectors have paid off handsomely and we remain constructive on this space. Despite the strong run-up since late last year, we believe the strong momentum will persist given:

  • Robust earnings momentum: The technology sector is expected to deliver earnings growth of 21% this year, far superseding the 10% growth expected from the broader market. Using the NYSE FANG+ Index as proxy, the momentum for Big Tech is even stronger, with earnings growth expected at 44% in 2024.
  • Strong cash holdings: Big Tech companies possess large cash holdings that will empower them to pursue M&A opportunities to deepen their product/service offerings as well as enhancing their “moat” qualities. Today, the total cash holdings of the Magnificent Seven stand at ~USD240bn.

Separately, we are also upgrading energy to overweight given: (1) improving ROE, (2) high dividend and buyback yield, and (3) light portfolio positioning among investors. This overweight will be funded by our downgrade of financials to neutral.

Download the PDF to read the full report which includes coverage on Credit, FX, Rates, and Thematics.

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本資訊是由星展銀行集團公司（公司註冊號： 196800306E）（以下簡稱“星展銀行”）發佈僅供參考。其所依據的資訊或意見搜集自據信可靠之來源，但未經星展銀行、其關係企業、關聯公司及聯屬公司（統稱“星展集團”獨立核實，在法律允許的最大範圍內，星展集團針對本資訊的準確性、完整性、時效性或者正確性不作任何聲明或保證（含明示或暗示）。本資訊所含的意見和預期內容可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。本資訊的發佈和散佈不構成也不意味著星展集團對資訊中出現的任何個人、實體、服務或產品表示任何形式的認可。以往的任何業績、推斷、預測或結果模擬並不必然代表任何投資或證券的未來或可能實現的業績。外匯交易蘊含風險。您應該瞭解外匯匯率的波動可能會給您帶來損失。必要或適當時，您應該徵求自己的獨立的財務、稅務或法律顧問的意見或進行此類獨立調查。

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若散佈或使用本資訊違反任何司法轄區或國家/地區的法律或法規，則本資訊不得為任何人或實體在該司法轄區或國家/地區散佈或使用。本資訊由 (a) 星展銀行集團公司在新加坡；(b) 星展銀行（中國）有限公司在中國大陸；(c) 星展銀行（香港）有限責任公司在中國香港[DBS CY1] ；(d) 星展（台灣）商業銀行股份有限公司在台灣；(e) PT DBS Indonesia 在印尼；以及 (f) DBS Bank Ltd, Mumbai Branch 在印度散佈。

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