Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Singapore / GDP

Expect an upward revision to 2Q GDP figures

July 27, 2017
Expect an upward revision to 2Q GDP figures

Singapore’s headline manufacturing output surged 13.1% year-on-year. The strong industrial production performance should prompt an upward revision to 2Q17 GDP figures to about 3%.

South Korea / GDP

Domestic demand spurs 2Q17 growth

July 27, 2017
Domestic demand spurs 2Q17 growth

South Korea’s 2Q17 GDP growth beat our expectations thanks to the notable pick-up in private consumption, which should stay strong this year.

India / GDP

Weak fiscal maths not yet a concern

July 27, 2017
Weak fiscal maths not yet a concern

Frontloaded spending and lagging revenue growth have started the fiscal year on a weak note for India’s government. But full-year targets are not yet at risk.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.31.0
Eurozone1.11.91.71.71.8
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.25.04.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.52.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.72.8
India*7.58.07.17.37.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.52.52.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.61.6
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.0
Malaysia3.12.12.13.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.83.23.2
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.91.7
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.2
China2.01.42.02.02.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.02.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.54.04.7
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US
Japan111.1114116117119
Eurozone1.1731.111.111.111.10
Indonesia13,33813,39313,41113,42913,447
Malaysia4.284.224.224.234.24
Philippines50.750.250.450.750.9
Singapore1.361.391.391.401.40
Thailand33.434.434.534.734.9
Vietnam^22,72322,72222,77122,82022,869
China*6.756.886.947.017.08
Hong Kong7.817.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.331.231.231.331.4
South Korea1,1221,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.464.864.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US1.251.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.256.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.50
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Rates

Longer-term USD interest rates are still stuck in a range

July 27, 2017
US

Ten-year US Treasury yields dipped below 2.3% while the market puts just a 43% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year. Further out, the implied Fed funds rate for end-2019 is now on the low sid...

Global / Currencies

Another one-sided USD sell-off after the FOMC meeting

July 27, 2017
Global

The markets remain selective, pushing only the USD lower on America not meeting its inflation target. Will it apply the same double standard if 2Q US GDP surprises on the upside on Friday?

Insights and Analysis

China / Rates

Bond Connect sees solid demand...

July 17, 2017

The Bond Connect programme, which was launched on 3 July, has been seeing solid demand; the RMB16bn bond issue by Agricultural Development Bank of China was ten times oversubscribed

Key summary points
  • Convenient access to onshore bond market with attractive risk-reward proposition
  • Potential inclusion in global bond indices to trigger portfolio inflow

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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