Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Singapore / Rates

SGS : How rich is the 5Y?

May 15, 2018
SGS : How rich is the 5Y?

The 5Y tenor of the SGS curve has been rich since the 2008/09 crisis

South Korea / Rates

Korea Treasury Bonds: Outperformance largely done

April 30, 2018
Korea Treasury Bonds: Outperformance largely done

While we think that the outperformance of Korea Treasury Bonds may be largely done, they are still extremely attractive from a USD-hedged perspective.

Hong Kong / Rates

HKD under pressure; Hibor to jump

April 26, 2018
HKD under pressure; Hibor to jump

Amid strong rate-hike expectations, HIBOR-LIBOR spreads have widened to the highest level, last seen in 2008. We think the prime lending rate will jump soon and likely reach 5.75% by end-2018.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.46.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.67.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.95.05.0
Philippines**5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.32.62.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.74.6
Indonesia6.43.53.84.04.5
Malaysia2.12.13.93.53.0
Philippines**1.41.32.94.23.5
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.01.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone00.21.51.31.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.61.0
United States***0.11.32.11.81.8
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*6.396.496.606.566.52
Hong Kong7.827.837.837.827.82
India64.7065.9067.0067.2067.40
Indonesia13,59613,74713,90013,96014,019
Malaysia3.954.084.204.184.16
Philippines52.653.354.054.454.8
Singapore**1.321.351.381.371.37
South Korea1,0821,1211,1601,1481,136
Taiwan
Thailand31.832.833.933.633.3
Vietnam***22,74522,83222,92022,97023,020
Eurozone1.231.191.161.171.19
Japan108112116115114

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.006.006.25
Indonesia4.254.254.254.504.75
Malaysia3.253.253.503.503.50
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.75
Singapore**1.401.651.902.152.15
South Korea1.501.751.752.002.00
Taiwan1.381.381.381.501.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Credit

Macro strategy: Asian banks credit outlook

May 21, 2018
Global

In a special report on 17 May, Fitch Ratings said that the impact of US Fed hikes should be manageable for most Asia-Pacific Banks. An easing in trade tensions between US and China, while welcome, is...

Global / GDP

This week: Upsides to GDP and inflation

May 21, 2018
Global

First quarter GDP releases for Singapore and Taiwan would see slightly stronger growth while inflation in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore will show a pick-up in price pressure; meanwhile Bank of Ko...

Insights and Analysis

Global / Insights

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

May 21, 2018

DBS tracks developments in the economies, foreign exchange and fixed income markets of the Asia-11 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam...

Key Summary Points
  • Access our list of reports
  • Get up-to-date analysis of economic data
  • Get our insights on the G3 and Asia-11 economies, currencies and fixed income space

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