Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Japan / GDP

Factory output is likely to suggest steady growth in 2Q

May 29, 2017
Factory output is likely to suggest steady growth in 2Q

This should help confirm that the exports-driven recovery remains well on track in 2Q, thanks to the improvement in global demand, upswing in the electronics sector, and receding protectionism risks.

Thailand / Inflation

Persistently low core inflation print reflects weak demand

May 29, 2017
Persistently low core inflation print reflects weak demand

Only a marked improvement in private consumption and / or investment growth will be able to push core inflation above 1% in the medium term.

India / GDP

India’s rebased GDP numbers will point to a more positive g...

May 29, 2017
India’s rebased GDP numbers will point to a more positive growth path

Rebased and revised industrial production and wholesale price index inflation figures are set to lift India’s annual growth for the past two years.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.52.6
Japan0.31.21.01.31.0
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.64.55.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan111.3113114116117
Eurozone1.1181.091.081.081.08
Indonesia13,29413,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.274.364.374.374.38
Philippines49.850.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.381.401.411.411.41
Thailand34.134.835.135.435.7
Vietnam^22,72822,64522,69522,74422,794
China*6.866.906.967.037.10
Hong Kong7.797.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.131.031.131.131.2
South Korea1,1211,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.464.764.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Europe / Inflation

Eurozone’s May inflation in focus

May 29, 2017
Europe

Eurozone’s May inflation, due mid-week, is likely to deflate expectations that the European Central Bank would lay the ground for an exit strategy at next month’s policy review.

Global / Rates

US Treasury yields are stuck in a range

May 29, 2017
Global

USD interest rates are settling into a range as the market comes to terms with the fact that Donald Trump’s ability to deliver on stimuli may be limited.

Insights and Analysis

Europe / Rates

The European Central Bank is not ready to hike rates...

May 23, 2017

The ECB is unlikely to tighten monetary policy quickly; inflation – as well as memories of premature hikes in 2008 and 2011 – will stay their hand.

Key summary points
  • Some of the risks clouding the Eurozone have cleared
  • Steady growth and receding fears of a currency break-up have fuelled expectations of ECB tightening
  • Inflation will be the key driver of policy action; we are not there yet
  • Memories of premature hikes in 2008 and 2011 will stay their hand
  • Markets need to differentiate between rate hikes and tapering; the ECB will focus on the latter

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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