Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / Currencies

Tolerance for Stronger Rupee in Focus

April 21, 2017
Tolerance for Stronger Rupee in Focus

The absence of comments to ‘talk down’ the rupee points to a new tolerance for a stronger currency. We will watch this space closely as a flows-driven rally in the currency runs the risk of reversal ...

Vietnam / Inflation

Inflation Has Peaked in Vietnam

April 21, 2017
Inflation Has Peaked in Vietnam

Inflation has peaked and improvement can be expected from the external front. As such, we expect inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2018, from 4% in 2017.

Taiwan / GDP

Export-Driven Recovery Will be Intact in Q2

April 21, 2017
Export-Driven Recovery Will be Intact in Q2

Taiwan’s exports sector has continued to benefit from the recovery of the US and the Chinese economy, innovation in the global tech industry, and the rebound in commodity prices. This will likely rem...

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.62.6
Japan0.31.21.01.01.1
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.35.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.65.05.2
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan109.4113114116117
Eurozone1.0711.051.041.041.04
Indonesia13,32313,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.404.504.544.574.60
Philippines49.850.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.401.441.441.451.45
Thailand34.435.635.735.936.0
Vietnam^22,73022,84923,03423,21823,402
China*6.887.027.117.197.28
Hong Kong7.777.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.431.431.531.531.5
South Korea1,1381,1731,1741,1751,177
India64.668.868.969.169.3
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / GDP

Bringing the Housing Market Back to Earth

April 21, 2017
Global

As the US housing market starts showing signs that it’s running ahead of itself, the Federal Reserve will need to do what a Federal Reserve has to do: nudge real rates into reasonably positive territ...

Global / Rates

Outsized Moves in US Treasurys

April 21, 2017
Global

With risky assets still holding up relatively well, the slide in USD interest rates appears to be outsized. Just what is weighing on US Treasury yields?

Insights and Analysis

Taiwan / GDP

Trump’s Policies and Taiwan, Revisited...

April 20, 2017

We discuss the implications of US President Donald Trump’s policies for Taiwan in four major topics – trade, investment, government policies, and financial markets.

Key summary points
  • Earlier excitement about Trump’s policies has started to wane; the tax reform has been delayed
  • The tariff/currency threats with respect to China are gone too
  • The easing of extreme protectionist policies from the US bodes well for Taiwan’s exports and growth
  • The US-Taiwan manufacturing cost gap will further narrow if Trump pushes through tax cuts
  • Volatility in financial markets remains high as investors adjust expectations about Trump’s policies

Read more reports

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