Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Malaysia / Inflation

Rising Inflation Limits Room to Ease

January 18, 2017
Rising Inflation Limits Room to Ease

Malaysia’s consumer price index inflation likely hit 2% in December 2016, and is expected to stay above the 2% mark this year. The central bank may have missed the opportunity to ease further.

Singapore / GDP

Robust Export Expansion Continues

January 18, 2017
Robust Export Expansion Continues

Singapore saw another month of robust export growth in December 2016. A pullback may be on the cards as the Lunar New Year approaches, but the effect will be transient.

Malaysia / Rates

Malaysian Bond Yields Consolidating

January 17, 2017
Malaysian Bond Yields Consolidating

Malaysian Government Securities yields are consolidating after the sharp selloff late last year. Longer-term MGSs are susceptible to a likely further increase in US Treasury yields.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.72.7
Japan2.00.31.21.01.0
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.61.6
Indonesia5.65.04.85.15.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.76.6
Singapore4.42.92.01.21.3
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.26.6
China7.77.36.96.56.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.52.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.66.97.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.22.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.20.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.64.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.02.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.72.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.50.9
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.73.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.41.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US
Japan112.8111113114115
Eurozone1.0701.051.051.041.04
Indonesia13,35213,33913,51813,69713,876
Malaysia4.464.464.564.674.78
Philippines49.849.850.250.751.1
Singapore1.421.441.451.461.48
Thailand35.336.336.536.636.8
Vietnam^22,54322,78222,78222,78222,782
China*6.856.937.027.117.19
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan31.632.232.432.532.7
South Korea1,1751,1991,2011,2041,206
India68.069.670.571.472.4
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US0.751.001.251.501.75
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.755.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Inflation

Above-Target Inflation

January 18, 2017
US

US core consumer price index inflation has been above the central bank’s target for more than a year; and now it’s time for the headline figure to follow suit.

Europe / GDP

Eurozone Current Account Surplus Widens

January 18, 2017
Europe

A stable external sector is providing inherent support to the euro. Looking ahead, cyclical signs suggest a pick-up in global demand is underway, which should benefit Eurozone exports this year.

Insights and Analysis

US / Inflation

Pop Goes the Headline ...

January 18, 2017

With inflation likely to have risen to 2.1% in December – above the Federal Reserve’s target – the central bank has its work cut out for it and will need to raise rates sooner and faster than most th...

Key summary points
  • Markets expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.1% y-o-y in December from 1.7% in November
  • And just like that, inflation will back above the Fed’s 2% target; Inflation won’t stop there
  • Continued recovery in crude prices imply headline inflation between 2.5%-3.5% by year-end
  • The Fed has its work cut out for it, long before one considers a possible Trump stimulus

Read more reports

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