Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Hong Kong / GDP

Full employment

November 20, 2017
Full employment

On the back of the above-trend GDP growth, Hong Kong’s labour market tightened further in October 2017. The latest unemployment rate edged down to 3%, the lowest since early 1998.

Southeast Asia / GDP

Strong growth in Malaysia and Singapore

November 20, 2017
Strong growth in Malaysia and Singapore

Thanks to a robust 3Q, Malaysia’s full-year growth is now expected to be 5.7%, the upper end of the official forecast range of 5.2-5.7%. Singapore, which will release 3Q GDP this week, will lik...

Asia / GDP

This Week: Q3 GDP of Singapore and Thailand; trade and prod...

November 20, 2017
This Week: Q3 GDP of Singapore and Thailand; trade and production; inflation data

The focus will be on Thailand’s and Singapore’s Q3 GDP. We expect Thailand to have grown 3.7% growth and see some upside risks to this forecast. Singapore’s Q3 growth is expected to be revised to 5.1...

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201520162017f2018f2019f
China6.96.76.86.46.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.42.52.5
India*7.58.07.16.87.3
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.35.05.0
Philippines5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.23.02.7
South Korea2.82.83.12.92.9
Taiwan0.71.52.42.52.4
Thailand2.93.23.53.63.8
Vietnam6.76.26.46.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.11.91.9
Japan1.11.01.61.10.9
United States**2.61.52.22.42.5
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201520162017f2018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.82.52.5
India*6.04.94.53.24.0
Indonesia6.43.53.94.14.2
Malaysia2.12.13.43.33.0
Philippines1.41.82.92.93.2
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.02.01.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.01.0
Thailand-0.90.20.51.21.8
Vietnam0.62.73.73.63.8
Eurozone0.00.21.51.21.6
Japan0.8-0.10.40.61.0
United States**0.11.31.61.81.8
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

4Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18
China*6.76.76.86.96.8
Hong Kong7.88888
India64.70065.2066.1067.0067.20
Indonesia13,48013,53013,62013,71013,740
Malaysia4.264.284.304.324.30
Philippines51.251.652.052.452.8
Singapore**1.371.381.391.401.39
South Korea1,1431,1501,1571,1641,157
Taiwan3131313131
Thailand33.5033.8034.1034.4034.10
Vietnam***22,77022,82022,87022,92022,970
Eurozone11111
Japan113116119122121
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

4Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.006.006.00
Indonesia4.254.254.254.254.50
Malaysia3.003.003.003.253.50
Philippines3.253.503.753.754.00
Singapore**1.401.401.651.902.15
South Korea1.251.501.501.751.75
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.25
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States1.501.501.752.002.25
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Europe / GDP

Political risk returns

November 20, 2017
Europe

Eurozone political concerns are back on the radar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s attempts to form a new government with a ‘Jamaica coalition’ failed; the EUR notched the biggest intraday dro...

Global / Currencies

European currencies weighed by politics

November 20, 2017
Global

The EUR is starting the week on a fragile note after German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to form a coalition in Germany. Meanwhile, the GBP’s rise may be arrested by Budget 2017. For more on...

Insights and Analysis

Indonesia / GDP

Indonesia in 2018/19: Higher gear?...

November 20, 2017

The Indonesian economy may expand at a quicker pace next year and in 2019, thanks to favourable domestic tailwinds and potentially positive external factors; investors should find Indonesian bonds an...

Key summary points
  • Afflicted by the hangover from the commodity crash, Indonesia seems to be stuck in a 5% trajectory
  • We expect GDP growth of 5.3% and 5.4% in 2018 and 2019, as investments continue to recover
  • BI may start hiking rates at the end of 2018, given the anticipated strengthening of the USD
  • We expect a modest depreciation path for the rupiah towards 14,200 in the next two years
  • Equity market volatility has fallen and long-term funds should find the market attractive

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

Discover All

  • Asia
  • Global
  • Asia
  • Global