Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / GDP

No Threat from Wider Deficit

March 24, 2017
No Threat from Wider Deficit

India’s 2016/17 fiscal year external balance remains stable, despite the slightly wider current account deficit of late.

Philippines / Rates

Policy Normalisation on the Cards?

March 24, 2017
Policy Normalisation on the Cards?

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday but this could soon change. We believe the central bank could hike rates as soon as May.

Taiwan / GDP

New Infrastructure Plan Unveiled

March 24, 2017
New Infrastructure Plan Unveiled

The Taiwanese government expects its new eight-year infrastructure programme to boost GDP growth, but past experience shows this may not be the case.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.72.6
Japan0.31.21.01.01.1
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.35.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.62.72.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.65.05.2
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan111.0113114116117
Eurozone1.0781.051.041.041.04
Indonesia13,32513,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.434.504.544.574.60
Philippines50.450.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.401.441.441.451.45
Thailand34.635.635.735.936.0
Vietnam^22,79522,84923,03423,21823,402
China*6.897.027.117.197.28
Hong Kong7.777.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.531.431.531.531.5
South Korea1,1221,1731,1741,1751,177
India65.568.868.969.169.3
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

Keeping Investors on Their Toes

March 24, 2017
Global

The USD has been range-bound ahead of the vote on the US healthcare bill, while the GBP was unusually calm ahead of Article 50.

US / GDP

Too Conservative on Housing?

March 24, 2017
US

The strong northward trend in US housing is starting to make our 5% projection for growth in the sector look a little too conservative.

Insights and Analysis

Thailand / GDP

Narrower Current Account Surplus a Plus...

March 21, 2017

We expect Thailand’s current account surplus to narrow to 7.2% and 6.5% of GDP in 2017 and 2018 from 11.4% in 2016. A narrowing of the surplus should be seen as a positive sign.

Key summary points
  • A narrowing of the current account surplus this year should be seen as a positive for Thailand
  • Last year’s record-high surplus of 11.4% of GDP highlighted what has gone wrong in recent years
  • The surplus has been mostly driven by falling imports, amid weak domestic demand
  • Outward direct investments also reached a record high in 2016

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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