Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Asia

China / GDP

China: Growth momentum to slow
July 17, 2018
China: Growth momentum to slow

China’s economic growth slowed slightly to 6.7% YoY in 2Q18. Further Reserved Required Ratio cut are expected amid weakened domestic and external demand. Expect the CNY to remain under pressure

Hong Kong / GDP

Hong Kong chart book - Near-term risks intensifying
July 03, 2018
Hong Kong chart book - Near-term risks intensifying

A strong upturn in 1Q18 notwithstanding, near-term risks have intensified.

China / GDP

China chart book - Stocks enter bear territory
July 03, 2018
China chart book - Stocks enter bear territory

Chinese stocks entered a bear market in June. The slide was largely attributed to liquidity shortage, bond default, and the escalating trade spat with Washington.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.66.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.77.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.05.2
Malaysia5.04.25.95.05.0
Philippines**5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.32.62.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.64.7
Indonesia6.43.53.83.64.0
Malaysia2.12.13.92.63.0
Philippines**1.41.32.94.23.5
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.31.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone0.00.21.51.41.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.81.0
United States***0.11.32.11.81.8
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

2Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19
China*6.626.606.706.656.60
Hong Kong7.857.847.837.827.82
India68.5069.0069.5070.0070.50
Indonesia14,33014,50014,60014,65014,700
Malaysia4.044.104.204.174.15
Philippines53.453.554.054.555.0
Singapore**1.361.381.401.391.38
South Korea1,1151,1501,2001,1801,160
Taiwan……………
Thailand33.033.434.033.833.5
Vietnam***22,93823,15023,20023,25023,300
Eurozone1.171.141.121.131.14
Japan111113115114113

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

2Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.256.506.756.756.75
Indonesia4.755.255.755.755.75
Malaysia3.253.253.253.253.25
Philippines3.253.503.503.754.00
Singapore**1.651.902.152.152.40
South Korea1.501.501.751.752.00
Taiwan1.381.381.501.501.63
Thailand1.501.501.501.752.00
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.506.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Rates

Macro Strategy
July 18, 2018
Global

A Powell-ful rally

Global / GDP

This Week: Eyes on China GDP
July 16, 2018
Global

China’s 2Q18 GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.7% y/y on the back of softer domestic demand.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...
July 18, 2018

Economics and Macro Strategy

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