Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Taiwan / GDP

Rebound in Industrial Production

February 24, 2017
Rebound in Industrial Production

Taking seasonal effects into the account, Taiwan’s industrial production growth registered a strong 4.3% on-month in January.

Singapore / Rates

Oscillating Correlation

February 24, 2017
Oscillating Correlation

The correlation between the three-month Singapore swap offer rate (SOR) and the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) has been relatively weak in recent months.

Philippines / GDP

The Disappearing Current Account Surplus

February 24, 2017
The Disappearing Current Account Surplus

We’re not overly concerned about Philippines’ shrinking current account surplus; given the huge growth potential, we reckon that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows may continue to rise going for...

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.72.7
Japan2.00.31.21.01.0
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.71.6
Indonesia5.65.04.95.05.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.86.4
Singapore4.42.92.02.02.8
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.26.6
China7.77.36.96.76.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.52.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.66.97.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.22.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.20.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.54.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.12.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.82.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.50.9
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.73.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.41.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US
Japan113.4111113114115
Eurozone1.0551.081.081.071.07
Indonesia13,36813,33913,51813,69713,876
Malaysia4.454.464.564.674.78
Philippines50.349.850.250.751.1
Singapore1.411.441.451.461.48
Thailand35.036.336.536.636.8
Vietnam^22,83322,78222,78222,78222,782
China*6.886.937.027.117.19
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.832.232.432.532.7
South Korea1,1421,1991,2011,2041,206
India67.069.670.571.472.4
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US0.751.001.251.501.75
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.755.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Rates

Fed Hike Based on February Labour Data

February 24, 2017
US

We continue to think that a March rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is more likely than not, and that February labour reports will be the deciding factor.

US / Rates

Time to Rethink Valuations

February 23, 2017
US

The last few months have led to a rethink in valuations for US Treasurys and the US equity markets. So which is the better bet? Read on for our comparison.

Insights and Analysis

China / Currencies

The Rise and Rise (and Rise) of the Yuan...

February 24, 2017

The Chinese yuan will continue its 20-year march north, beneath all the huckus-ruckus of bilateral currency moves that few can explain and fewer can predict.

Key summary points
  • Too many Americans have a myopic view of the yuan
  • They measure its value against the US dollar alone; This is a mistake
  • The yuan has appreciated by 41% in trade-weighted terms since 2005
  • The appreciation of the yuan owes mainly to faster GDP and income growth than in the West
  • The yuan will continue to trend north accordingly

Read more reports

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