Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / GDP

Pressure is on as key growth drivers lose steam

September 21, 2017
Pressure is on as key growth drivers lose steam

There is pressure building for policy support in response to India’s growth slump, but the costs of targeting higher growth with extra stimulus are likely to outweigh the benefits.

Malaysia / Inflation

Transport costs driving up inflation

September 21, 2017
Transport costs driving up inflation

Higher oil prices have halted the decline in Malaysia’s inflation, with transport inflation set to have a strong influence in the coming months. But underlying inflationary pressure remains benign.

Philippines / Rates

A rate hike is still likely before the year-end

September 21, 2017
A rate hike is still likely before the year-end

With the rebound in core inflation to 3% in August, the surprisingly low July reading turned out to be a temporary blip. It is worth watching if the BSP still sees upward risks to inflation.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.52.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.61.1
Eurozone1.11.91.72.02.0
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.3
Malaysia6.05.04.25.34.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.53.6
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.76.4
Hong Kong2.52.41.03.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.42.5
South Korea3.32.82.82.82.9
India*7.58.07.16.87.3
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.31.92.1
Japan2.70.8-0.10.40.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.51.2
Indonesia6.46.43.54.24.5
Malaysia3.12.12.13.42.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.92.9
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.50.91.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.51.2
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.6
China2.01.42.01.62.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.61.82.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.40.91.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.91.8
India*6.04.94.53.64.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current4Q171Q182Q183Q18
US
Japan111.5110110110110
Eurozone1.1961.171.171.171.17
Indonesia13,25513,41113,42913,44713,465
Malaysia4.194.224.234.244.25
Philippines51.151.251.652.052.4
Singapore1.351.361.361.361.36
Thailand33.133.133.133.133.1
Vietnam^22,72622,77122,82022,86922,917
China*6.586.586.586.586.58
Hong Kong7.827.827.827.827.82
Taiwan30.130.530.530.530.5
South Korea1,1291,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.164.864.965.065.1
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current4Q171Q182Q183Q18
US1.251.501.752.002.25
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.504.254.254.254.25
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.006.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.501.50
India6.006.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Currencies

Trump tax cut would bolster USD recovery

September 21, 2017
US

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to start unwinding its balance sheet from October was a boost for the USD, which is now looking for a corporate tax cut to be announced next week.

Europe / GDP

Wage growth shows signs of life

September 21, 2017
Europe

There’s narrowing labour slack in the Eurozone as seasonally adjusted wage growth rose 1.8% year-on-year in 2Q17, the strongest pace in two years.

Insights and Analysis

India / GDP

Quick fixes threaten macro-stability...

September 20, 2017

As India’s growth slows, the market is likely to crank up calls for stimulus. But we think that the costs of targeting faster growth via fiscal or monetary policy are likely to outweigh the benefits.

Key summary points
  • Soft April-June growth numbers belie expectations for a return to over 7% growth in FY17/18
  • Calls to support growth via fiscal/monetary policy and a competitive exchange rate likely to rise
  • But there is little room to up spending without undermining the progress in fiscal consolidation
  • Monetary policy will be constrained by inflation amid preference for stable rather than weaker rupee
  • Overall, the costs of targeting higher growth with stimulus are likely to outweigh the benefits

Read more reports

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