FX Quarterly 4Q 25: A Lame Duck USD
Expecting more tests for the USD in year 2 of Trump 2.0.
Group Research - Econs15 Dec 2025
  • The world has grown less in awe of US exceptionalism and more anxious about US dysfunction.
  • USD is entering 2026 politically wounded and cyclically tired amid multiple worries.
  • We like JPY, KRW vs USD, as well as AUD vs SGD.
  • JPY's undervaluation could narrow as the BOJ hikes and as fiscal uncertainty fades.
  • CNY remains deeply undervalued, and sentiment is turning as trade risks abate.
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A Lame Duck USD 

Over the first year of Trump 2.0, the world has grown less in awe of US exceptionalism and more anxious about US dysfunction. The longest US government shutdown in history, a stopgap continuing resolution until January 30, 2026, and the Supreme Court’s likely ruling against Trump’s use of reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have together eroded the “America First” premium of the USD.

The USD will likely enter 2026 politically wounded and cyclically tired. The Democratic Party’s victories in the state elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York suggested a weakening of Trump’s electoral brand ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. If the Supreme Court strips tariffs as a fiscal prop, it would force a sharper reevaluation of debt dynamics at a time when the federal debt has reached a record USD 38 trillion with annual interest costs exceeding USD 1 trillion. It does not help that waning trust in Trump’s stewardship of the economy has prompted firms to adopt hiring freezes and increased reliance on AI tools, and in turn, households to adopt a more defensive approach to spending.

The end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, will erode the liquidity-scarcity premium that underpinned the USD since 2022. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the next Trump-appointed Fed Chair may prove less independent and more responsive to the administration’s MAGA agenda, tilting toward easier monetary policy that compresses US real yields and undermines the USD’s rate advantage.

Asian currencies are expected to regain much-needed stability in 2026 after a volatile year, during which Trump’s inconsistent use of tariffs and one-sided trade deals unsettled some countries, particularly India, South Korea, and Japan. The interest rate-sensitive MYR and THB stand out as traditional beneficiaries of US rate cuts that narrow differentials.

De-dollarization will continue to advance, not as a challenge to the USD’s dominance, but as a risk-management strategy to achieve strategic autonomy in a world where tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions increasingly expose the vulnerabilities of single-currency dependence. Many emerging and middle-power economies in Asia, the Middle East, the BRICS, and the Global South are settling more trade transactions in local currencies and the CNY, accumulating gold, and establishing regional payment systems to reduce exposure to US policy swings and safeguard against financial and trade coercion.

China and the Eurozone have started to elevate the international roles of the CNY and EUR. For Beijing, this goal aligns with the priorities outlined in its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which aims to expand cross-border digital RMB pilots, strengthen BRICS’s financial infrastructure, and deepen bilateral swap networks to stabilize trade flows. For Brussels, the focus is on expanding EUR-denominated energy and commodity contracts, deepening the Capital Markets Union to attract global savings, and strengthening the use of the EUR in green and digital financing.

Click here to read the full report

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]
 


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