South Korea markets: AI momentum reduces stagflation concerns
AI trades.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying24 Apr 2026
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Recent data have reassured investors that AI momentum remains strong and the AI-driven growth outlook is intact. First-quarter GDP expanded by 6.9% q/q saar (3.6% y/y), primarily supported by exports of goods and services, which surged 22.1% q/q saar (10.3% y/y) on robust demand for HBM chips and surging memory prices. Upcoming April trade data are also expected to remain solid, with export growth likely exceeding 40% y/y.

We revise our full-year GDP growth forecast upward to 2.6% (from 2.2%). AI-related semiconductor demand is expected to remain resilient, underpinned by structural drivers such as government policy support and corporate strategic investment. At the same time, South Korean authorities have introduced timely fiscal and stabilization measures to cushion the impact of higher energy prices amid Middle East tensions on domestic demand, including a supplementary budget of KRW 26.2 trillion (0.9% of GDP), fuel price caps, and expanded fuel tax cuts.

The reaffirmation of the growth outlook and easing stagflation concerns should support a recovery in KRW assets. The KOSPI has fully retraced its losses following the Iran-related selloff, returning to late-February levels, while USD/KRW has reverted to early-March levels. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Korea’s 2026 projections (GDP: 2.0%, CPI: 2.2%) appear somewhat conservative. Market pricing for monetary policy tightening remains broadly stable, with expectations of around 25 bps of rate hikes over the next six months.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]


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