Japan’s election and possible JPY surprises
We do not rule out Japan’s snap election as a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” event for the weak JPY trade.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee9 Feb 2026
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We do not rule out Japan’s snap election as a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” event for the weak JPY under the “Takaichi Trade”.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Inshin coalition’s landslide victory in Japan’s February 8 lower house election may bode well for the JPY. The opposite was true when the previous LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority at the October 2024 lower house election and the July 2025 upper house election. At that time, the USD benefited from the so-called “Trump Trade” ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election, as well as a rebound after its post-Liberation Day sell-off in 2Q 2025.



Currently, the USD’s downside risks remain present despite its initial bounce on President Donald Trump’s January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair in mid-May. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has conditioned Warsh’s confirmation hearing on progress in the White House dropping the legal cases against Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lisa Cook. As a result, markets remain unable to assess whether Warsh is still a hawk or support more rate cuts, his willingness and ability to defend the Fed’s independence against political pressure, and the extent of his alignment with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in reducing the Fed’s balance sheet.

Against this background, following three rate cuts in September-December, Fed officials are united with markets about pauses at the March and April FOMC meetings. This week’s US jobs data on February 11 and CPI data on February 13 will be unlikely to alter the market’s belief for Warsh to deliver a rate cut at his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair in June.

To stabilize the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market, the Takaichi administration will likely intensify the narrative that proactive fiscal policy will be paired with fiscal discipline. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has already sought to draw that boundary, stressing that the planned consumption tax suspension will be capped at two years and will not be financed through deficit-funded bond issuance.



The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported a JPY16.19 trillion investment gain in the October-December 2025 quarter, despite incurring a JPY1.53 trillion loss on its JGB holdings. The broader health of the GPIF’s portfolio underscores how markets may be overstating JGB risks by fixating on yield volatility tied to fiscal concerns, while underplaying the reflationary impulse evident in record-high Japanese equities. Reinforcing this narrative, a recent Reuters report noted that Japan’s two largest banks stand ready to increase their JGB holdings, offering another stabilizing factor for the JGB market.

We remain wary of market calls for USD/JPY to keep rising strongly after Takaichi’s victory. Although Bessent ruled out currency intervention between Washington and Tokyo, he did not contradict President Trump’s criticism about the JPY’s weakness. We believe that Trump is uneasy about USD/JPY rising materially above 160 because it visually reinforces USD strength, which runs counter to his reindustrialization agenda in the MAGA-driven trade deals, where countries are meant to increase their purchasing power to absorb US goods and invest in the US.

During Takaichi’s official visit to the US on March 19, Trump will likely seek a stronger commitment to more defense spending and the implementation of Japan’s USD550 bn investment deal. It will be telling whether Takaichi dials down her hawkish rhetoric on China, signalling sensitivity to Trump’s priority for a US-China trade deal during his visit to China in April. China’s stock markets will officially close next week (February 16-23) for the Lunar New Year, with most factories already starting to wind down. While China’s long holidays don’t stop markets, they reduce Asia’s depth and dampen conviction.

Quote of the Day
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February 9 in history
Volleyball is invented by William G. Morgan in 1895.








Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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