鮑威爾的8分鐘演講 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡05 Sep 2022


    8月26日,聯儲局主席鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾年會(Jackson Hole)發表8分鐘的演講,隨後股債匯市出現大幅波動,例如美匯指數再創20年新高。同時美國國債急跌,其中2年期美債收益率升至2007年11月以來最高的3.549厘,同時10年期美債收益率亦上升至3.29厘。再者,美股急跌,其中標普500指數在短短一周時間內跌約6%。

    鮑威爾的演講到底有甚麽特別,會造成市場震盪?不少人指鮑威爾的演講乏善可陳。不過,筆者認為正正是因為鮑威爾的言論缺乏驚喜(重申其他聯儲局官員的鷹派信號),才會給一眾期待聯儲局轉鴿的市場人士當頭一棒。

    美匯指數料反覆向上

    總結鮑威爾短短8分鐘的言論,重點主要有三個:第一,加息幅度將取決於經濟數據。這意味接下來的就業和通脹數據(例如9月13日公佈的8月通脹率)將至關重要,而數據對市場造成的波動亦將更大;第二,聯儲局不會因一個月和兩個月的數據而動搖。這意味着雖然經濟數據十分重要,但即使美國PMI和通脹率下跌,或者失業率上升,又或者美股下挫,只要工資增長維持穩健,以及通脹率維持在遠高於2%目標值的水平(甚至高於8%),聯儲局則可能繼續激進地加息;第三,歷史經驗顯示不應過早開始放寬貨幣政策。上周儲局官員Mester亦重申這個觀點,表示並不預期明年減息。

    根據上述三個重點,市場可能仍有空間調高對聯儲局利率的預期。首先,若8月美國就業和通脹數據優於預期,市場對聯儲局9月加息75個基點的預期將進一步升溫(9月2日亞洲早盤,市場預期9月加息幅度為68.4個基點)。

    其次,如果未來數月的數據顯示通脹率仍然居高不下(因美國工資增長、房租增長及能源價格保持堅挺),市場或需將這一輪加息周期的終端利率(最高利率),由目前預期的3.95厘左右上調至4厘甚至更高。

    事實上,不少聯儲局官員已表示支持加息至4厘以上,以壓低通脹。再者,市場或需調整對聯儲局明年下半年的利率預期。雖然市場已明顯上調對未來一年利率水平的預期,但仍預計截至明年底,聯儲局仍將減息超過30個基點。

    鑒於聯儲局仍可能比目前市場預期的更加鷹派,市場對於該央行利率預期的調整,或將反覆推升美債收益率,同時支持美匯指數反覆向上,短期交易區間可能是107至110,交易區間以外的下一個阻力位則為111.2左右。

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