FX Daily: USD is holding up better-than-expected
USD mounted an unusual rally with Wall Street on Thursday. On most days, the greenback would have depreciated on an improvement in risk appetite. Thursday’s rally in Wall Street was, however, more about America’s relatively stronger fundamentals. Advance US GDP estimate came in stronger at an annualized 33.1% qoq sa in 3Q vs the consensus for a rebound to 32.0% from -31.4%. Initial jobless claims fell to a 751k for week ended 17 October, the lowest since the week of 14 March. Another slide in nonfarm payrolls is expected next Friday after the US elections.
Against this background, we question the market’s expectations for the USD to depreciate on a Blue Sweep at the US elections on 3 November. Moody’s Analytics reckoned that the US economy and labour market would perform better under a Biden presidency compared to a second term under Trump. Unlike a month ago, the EU economic outlook has also darkened dramatically from the coronavirus resurgence and new locksdowns. We noted that the VIX volatility index has stayed lofty despite higher equities, wary of the misinformation, conspiracy theories and debates over other outcomes such as a Red Wave, a Senate still held by the Republicans, and the nightmare scenario of a contested presidency.
Divergences have also emerged on monetary policy, not just the economy in favour of the USD. The Fed is on hold and prefers more fiscal stimulus to support the recovery. Central banks in the Eurozone, UK and Australia have signalled more monetary stimulus in November-December. We have noted that the USD has recently drawn support from its wider bond yield differentials against these currencies. The USD (Index) needs to break above 94 to extend its recovery.
EUR is weighed by its weakened fundamentals; our end-year target remains at 1.15. EURUSD fell to around 1.1650 where its 100-day moving average is located. European stocks, as measured by the Euro Stoxx 50, was flat to weaker by 0.1%. Double-dip worries have emerged now that France and Germany have gone into lockdowns on the second wave of infections overwhelming the Eurozone. The European Central Bank signalled, at its governing council yesterday, that risks were clearly on the downside with a promise to recalibrate its instruments by its next meeting in December. Today’s data releases are expected to see, for a third straight month, an unemployment rate above 8% in September amidst negative CPI inflation in October. Not surprisingly, the EUR is increasingly weighed by the deeper negative 10Y EU-US bond yield differential.
GBP is heavy on Brexit risks and domestic political uncertainties. GBPUSD fell for a second session and extended its fall below 1.30 to 1.2930. First, the risk of a no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out by the end of the transition period on 31 December. EU and UK have not been able to overcome the impasse over fisheries and the level playing for a trade deal. Second, US presidential candidate Joe Biden, who is expected to win next week’s US elections, has warned that a US-UK trade deal would not happen. The Internal Market Bill has undermined the Northern Ireland peace process which has been viewed as a success of American foreign policy. The House of Lords is, however, scheduled to vote, on 9 November, against the controversial clauses in the bill. Third, Prime Minister is under pressure from Tory rebels and government medical advisers over his handling of the coronavirus. Fourth, the Bank of England is expected to increase the size of its asset purchases for a third time at its next meeting on 5 November. The negative 10Y UK-US bond yield differential has deepened to -60 bps, its widest since March. GBPUSD should remain in a 1.25-1.30 range with a downside bias.
AUD has a neutral-to-bearish momentum near the floor of of its month-long 0.70-0.72 range. Consensus has pencilled in a rate cut at the next Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting on 3 November. The targets for the cash rate and the 3Y bond yield are likely to fall to new record lows of 0.10% from 0.25%. The RBA is keen to dispel the notion that it has run out of firepower. Apart from more bond purchases, the RBA could also target longer-dated bond yields. These policy moves could tilt the favour towards the USD from the AUD if it succeeds in cementing the recent push by the 10Y AU-US bond differential to turn negative. Failure to hold 0.70 could lead AUDUSD down towards 0.68.
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Group, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Group or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Group & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong.
PT Bank DBS Indonesia, DBS Bank Tower, 33rd floor, Ciputra World 1, Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5, Jakarta, 12940, Indonesia. Tel: 62-21-2988-4000. Company Registration No. 09.03.1.64.96422