Asia Rates: More core rates vol
Rates in India, Indonesia and South Korea fell
Group Research - Econs, Duncan Tan9 Sep 2022
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There was more core rates vol overnight as UST and Bund yields rose sharply higher. The primary driver was ECB hiking 75bps and signaling more hikes to come. Speaking at a separate event, Fed Chair Powell added to the hawkish tone by affirming the Fed's commitment to act strongly against inflation. Asia rates should be expected to open higher this morning. 

INR Rates - OIS rates fell 10-15bps yesterday on lower US rates and sharp decline in Brent prices during Wednesday's US session. INR FX's recent relative stability, compared to Asia FX peers, is having a noticeable positive knock-on effect on INR Rates. Compared to regional rates, INR Rates do not need to price in as large a FX risk premium, in the current context of broad US Dollar strength. Compared to other regional economies who also import a lot of oil (e.g. Thailand, South Korea), oil prices in INR have declined more in percentage terms, imparting a larger positive passthrough to INR Rates. As long as RBI keeps up the pace/intensity of intervention and keeps INR FX relatively stable, INR Rates can be expected to outperform. 

IDR Rates - 5Y IndoGB yields dropped 10bps yesterday on BI Governor Perry Warjiyo's comments that the pace of BI rate hikes won't be as aggressive as the US Fed's. Markets are probably concerned that BI rate hikes could accelerate in response to the upcoming jump in inflation prints (due to recent fuel price hikes) and the Governor's comments likely eased some of those concerns. That said, if inflation were to rise to 6-7% levels and BI rate hikes are less aggressive, then IndoGBs may no longer offer high and positive real yields.

KRW Rates - IRS rates fell 9-15bps yesterday on lower US rates during Wednesday's US session and a pullback in BOK hike pricing. The broader context is that, as seen in July inflation data, Asia inflation prints are no longer rising across-the-board and generally surprising to the upside. August inflation data released over the past one week for South Korea, Taiwan and Philippines all showed a moderation in YoY prints and downside surprise vs survey. As a result, KRW IRS markets are likely considering the possibility that IRS rates had overshot in August (on the back of hawkish BOK stance) and are now repricing lower towards 3.25-3.50% levels for terminal rates. We have been holding a pay on dips stance for KRW IRS and therefore think that the pullback could be an opportunity to reload on payers. 


Duncan Tan

Rates Strategist - Asia
[email protected]
 

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