FX Daily: Beware of a dead cat bounce
Powell speaks after ECB meeting today
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee8 Sep 2022
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EUR rebounded by 1% to parity ahead of a 75 bps hike expected at the European Central Bank meeting today. Speculators also took profit on the DXY after its 14-day RSI hit above the overbought 70 levels. EUR could plunge again if the ECB disappoints with a 50 bps hike. Last week, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane favoured a “steady pace” of rate rises to fight inflation while minimizing risks to the economy. Many ECB officials wanted “forceful action” to anchor inflation expectations but did not explicitly support or oppose a 75 bps hike proposed by a few members. According to Bloomberg consensus, Eurozone GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% QoQ in 4Q22 on the energy crisis this winter. Russia has shut down gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline and would not resume production until the West lifted sanctions.

DXY corrected lower by 1% to 109.6 after hitting a fresh 20-year high at 110.8. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.4%, 1.8% and 2.1% respectively. The US Treasury 10Y yield eased 8.6 bps to 3.264%; 2Y fell 7.2 bps to 3.431%. Brent crude oil prices plunged 5.7% to USD87.54 per barrel, below 80 for the first time since early February, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Fed’s Beige Book highlighted expectations for demand to soften over the next 6 to 12 months. Overall labor market conditions remained tight despite improvements in labor availability and worker retention. Price levels remained highly elevated despite nine out of 12 districts reporting some degree of moderation in the pace of price increases. However, the Beige Book was not enough for the Fed to waver in its commitment to control inflation. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard reckoned it would take several months of low monthly inflation readings to be confident that inflation is moving back to the 2% target. Essentially, a second slower CPI inflation next week is unlikely to deter the Fed from delivering a third 75 bps hike to 3.25% at the FOMC meeting on 21 September. Many Fed officials also preferred holding the Fed Funds Rate high at around 4% next year.

One last thing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be taking part in moderated discussion on monetary policy today after the ECB meeting. Keep those seat belts on.

Quote of the day
“Victory is fleeting. Losing is forever.”
      Billie Jean King

8 September in history
The League of Nations voted unanimously to admit Germany in 1926.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

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