Asia Rates: Surge in long-term core rates
Resilient GSec, demand for USD sovereign bonds
Group Research - Econs, Duncan Tan7 Sep 2022
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

rates volatility overnight. Upward moves in US rates were quite large, with 10Y and 30Y UST yields higher by 15-16bps. The drivers appear to be heavy US corporate issuances and spillovers from UK rates which rose on expectations that new UK prime minister Liz Truss will boost public spending. Asia low-yielders should be expected to be more sensitive to volatility in core rates.

INR Rates - RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das made some comments yesterday that foreign bond investors should find reassuring. First, he expects inflation to move into the target band in 1Q of CY23. Second, he said that the RBI has been intervening on an almost-daily basis to curb INR volatility and anchor depreciation expectations. In the current context where recent CNY and JPY depreciation has been outsized relative to the region, and external demand and regional exports are slowing, there are some investor worries that regional central banks could reduce the extent/intensity of their interventions to support export competitiveness. The comments yesterday gives us some confidence that, even if dollar strength and core rates volatility were to persist, GSec returns would be more resilient.

IDR Rates - There was reporting yesterday that Indonesia could be issuing 5Y, 10Y and 30Y USD sovereign bonds. 10Y INDON-UST yield spreads have widened this year but current spread levels would not be considered elevated compared to recent historical. Proceeds will be used to repurchase some of its outstanding global bonds. Potentially, part of the proceeds, if used for government expenditure, could help to add to FX reserves, which have declined around 10% due to intervention, external debt repayment and likely some valuation effects. We expect investor demand for the USD sovereign bonds to be healthy. Indonesia has been one of the EM frontrunners in terms of consolidating on fiscal. With the deepening of Europe's energy crisis, investors could also expect commodity prices to be supported for longer (especially for Indonesia's coal exports), which would directly benefit the CA and associated USD supply.


Duncan Tan

Rates Strategist - Asia
[email protected]
 
Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.