FX Daily: RBA and AUD are unlikely to eclipse Fed and USD
Not buying into RBA pause speculation
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee6 Sep 2022
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AUD depreciated 0.2% to 0.6797 ahead of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. We expect the RBA to lift the cash rate target a fourth time by 50 bps to 2.35%, close to its 2.50% neutral rate. However, markets are assessing if the RBA will slow the pace of hikes to 25 bps in October. The Greens, which control the balance of power in the Senate, want the RBA to pause ahead of the second Federal Budget announcement on 25 October. Although the Melbourne Institute’s inflation fell to 4.9% YoY in August from 5.4% in July, it has been underperforming CPI inflation. 

RBA expects CPI inflation to keep rising from 6.1% YoY in 2Q22 to 7.75% YoY in December and returning to the top of the 2-3% target only in 2024. Starting 26 October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will stop reporting inflation quarterly in favour of monthly releases. Taming inflation is a top priority of the Albanese government. In July, the Treasury launched a wide-ranging review of the RBA which was criticized for pushing out rate hikes to 2024 earlier. Like the Fed at Jackson Hole, the RBA will likely look past the housing market worries and focus on curbing demand to control inflation.

We have lowered our end-2022 forecast for AUD to 0.65 from 0.71. For the rest of this year, the Fed’s unapologetic readiness to control inflation at the expense of growth should keep the USD strong against the currencies of East Asia, Australia’s largest export destination. China, the country’s largest trading partner, is experiencing weaknesses in its economy and currency. Like other commodity-led currencies such as the CAD and NZD, AUD will not be immune to risk aversion. 

DXY was flat at 109.5 during the US Labor Day holiday on Monday. Today, Bloomberg consensus expects the US ISM Services PMI to slow to 55.4 in August from 56.7. Pay attention to the prices paid sub-index – which dipped to a 17-month low of 72.3 in July – as a preview of the CPI inflation on 13 September. However, the Fed has already indicated that it will look past a second CPI slowdown and hike rates by 50-75 bps at the FOMC meeting on 21 September. On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s speech should reinforce the Fed’s hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Expect a 75 bps Fed hike this month if the Bank of Canada hikes by 75 bps tomorrow. The BOC is known to parallel the Fed and will not want to be caught wrong-footed again. In June, BOC hiked 50 bps but Fed surprised with a 75 bps move. BOC compensated with a 100 bps increase in July vs the 75 bps Fed hike. Hence, we will not read much into this morning’s currency appreciation.

Quote of the day
“The hardest tumble a man can make is to fall over his own bluff.”
      Ambrose Bierce

6 September in history
The first true supermarket, Piggly Wiggly, opened in Memphis, Tennessee in 1916.








Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

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