Asia Rates: Right side of dollar smile could hurt
Risk exposure to Asia duration bears watching.
Group Research - Econs, Duncan Tan2 Sep 2022
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Overnight, better than expected US economic data releases (initial jobless claim, ISM manufacturing and new orders) reduced worries of US recession risks and supported confidence that the US economy is holding up well under Fed rate hikes. US curve bear-steepened led by the long-end. 10Y US real yields climbed almost 10bps to reach +0.8%. From a Asia perspective, while a resilient US economy is in isolation a positive development, a US economy that is also outperforming rest of the world has historically weighed on Asia local markets (right side of dollar smile). 10Y US real yields, if they continue to climb and break +1%, would suggest further reducing risk exposures to Asia bonds.

KRW Rates - August CPI printed 5.7% YoY, lower than survey's 6.1% YoY and July's print of 6.3% YoY. August CPI was -0.1% in MoM terms, lower than survey's +0.3% MoM. We think the lower YoY print and negative MoM print would ease some concerns on Korea's inflation and the need for BOK to hike more for longer. Therefore, IRS rates, after surging over the past 2 weeks (5Y higher by 75bps), should see some near-term consolidation. August trade balance printed a deficit of USD9.5bn, the widest deficit on record. Trade balance continues to be weighed on by sluggish exports to China, high energy prices and slowing semiconductor exports. From a BOP perspective, the widening of trade deficit more than offsets some of the recent positive developments on capital account flows (locals pull back on overseas investments, foreign net purchase of Korean equities returned in July/August).

CNY Rates - News this week of more cities coming under increased restrictions and testing should result in recovery expectations staying depressed and IRS and CGB yields are biased slightly lower in the near-term. 7D repo fixing rates appear to be finding a bottom around 1.50% level. We think that credit growth may be slow to recover and thus, interbank liquidity could stay ample and the fixing rate could stay much lower than OMO rate for an extended period of time. Receiving CNY 1Y IRS/NDIRS could do well, by monetizing the positive carry and could also benefit if markets price for more MLF/OMO rate cuts.


Duncan Tan

Rates Strategist - Asia
[email protected]
 
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