FX Daily: Fed is taking no prisoners
Fed nervousness to spill over into September
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee1 Sep 2022
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester wants the Fed Funds Rate above 4% by early 2023 and ruled out rate cuts next year. US Treasury 10Y yield firmed 9 bps to 3.193%; 2Y rose 5.1 bps to 3.493%. Mester acknowledged that US recession risks have increased over the next 1-2 years and see the unemployment rate above 4% by the end of 2022. Her remarks came just before ADP employment surprised with a drop to 132 jobs in August; consensus expected a rise to 300k from 268k in July. Like New York Fed President John Williams, Mester supported a 50 bps or 75 bps hike at the FOMC meeting on 21 September. The size of each hike and the FFR’s peak will depend on inflation. However, it is becoming evident a second slowdown in US CPI inflation on 13 September won’t be enough to stop the Fed from tweaking its dot plot higher in the next Summary of Economic Projections. 

Markets do not expect any relief from Friday’s US jobs report. US stocks tanked for the fourth session, ending August weaker after July’s rally. September was also weaker in 2021 and 2020. Earlier on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was “happy” to see markets sell-off on the Fed’s commitment to control inflation at Jackson Hole. Bloomberg consensus is looking for US nonfarm payrolls to add 300k jobs in August, fewer than the 528k in July. Today, surveys see initial jobless claims rising to 248k for the 27 August week from 243k a week ago. Consensus also expects the ISM manufacturing PMI to slow to 51.9 in August from 52.8 in July. Prices paid are expected to fall to 55.3 from 60, and employment to 49.5 from 49.9. New orders should be unchanged at 48.

DXY has been sitting on the fence, averaging around 108.7 since 22 August. The Fed was wrong about inflation being transitory. Now, it is starting to rule out a soft landing to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Currencies typically do well when a strong economy needs higher interest rates to stabilize prices. The story is different when aggressive rate hikes are necessary to hurt the economy and jobs to regain control of inflation. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is worried about future job losses. Although the White House backed the Fed’s independence, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters the goal was “to keep bringing down inflation without sacrificing the historic and life-changing economics gains” made in the US over the last 18 months. While rate differentials still support the USD, the foundation of this year’s USD rally is also starting to weaken.

Quote of the day
“Deeply earnest and thoughtful people stand on shaky footing with the public.”
      Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

1 September in history
World War Two started with Germany invading Poland in 1939.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.