USD Rates: Monitoring data and market stresses
Data dependence and financial conditions are key.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow30 Aug 2022
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The importance of data and financial conditions trump guidance from Fed Chair Powell when determining US Treasury yields. In this uncertain environment, there is good reason why major central banks (including the Fed) have abandoned forward guidance. Considerable nimbleness on policy making would be needed if data surprises (in either direction). Currently, nonfarm payrolls (Due Friday) is arguably the most important single indicator to watch. While US data some been somewhat mixed, jobless claims and payrolls have stayed resilient over the past few months. This is a problem as the Fed seeks to curb demand side inflation. Consensus is looking for another 300k print in NFP this week. If achieved, this would allow Powell to maintain the hawkish narrative. However, a clear downside surprise might warrant a rethink. In level terms, we think that rates are already pricing in a relatively hawkish outcome.

Financial conditions also bear watching. The Fed is probably uncomfortable with the bounce in stocks and the pricing in of cuts in 2023. Engineering a moderate level of stress to get a soft-landing might be an implicit goal. Accordingly, the overall mix of stocks, credits, volatility, implied real rates and USD performance could easily drive this index to levels that typically act as a circuit breaker. This occurred twice this year, in May and in early July. The upshot is that the Fed’s actions and tone will be guided by a mix of these two factors – data and financial conditions. Even as the market now moves towards the pricing in of a hawkish Fed, it will require firm US data to conclude that it is appropriate for rates to be where they are (or even higher). Financial conditions also bear watching to determine if the economy can handle the degree of tightness priced into USD rates. 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 
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