SGD Rates: A look at the dislocations
SGD rates through this volatile period.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow30 Aug 2022
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The resurgence of volatility over the past few days have led to some dislocations in SGD rates. SGD rates, in general, require an additional level of overlay from domestic liquidity and FX considerations. With USD rates spiking and the USD resurgent, market participants in different segments are reacting differently. There may be some mis-pricings across curves. First, 2Y to 3Y SGS yields look relatively low compared to SORA, SOFR and UST rates/yields. This is particularly glaring if we note that the 2Y/10Y segment of the SGS curve is upward sloping, whereas the other three curves are generally inverted over the same tenors. Local demand for short tenor SGS have probably driven 2Y and 3Y SGS into overbought territory. The lack of short-dated issuances for the rest of the year have probably exacerbated matters. Interestingly, fear of a higher-for-longer Fed showed up in the longer-tenor SGS (5Y auction tailed) , in contrast with the US. Second, the forward paths of SORA and SOFR do not appear consistent. The peaking out of SOFR in six months is accompanied by a peaking of SORA in nine months. Short of stresses jolting SGD rates in nine months’ time, we would reasonably expect both rates to peak out at the same time, even if the spreads can vary. Meanwhile, we are not convinced that SORA should trade at a steady stead premium (of about 20bps) to SOFR in the longer run. This would imply an extended period of stress at a time when the US rates are still relatively high. Typically, the periods when SGD rates embed a premium is when USD rates are very low and / or there are FX/liquidity concerns (similar to 2015/2016). It might not be reasonable to infer this phenomenon from where we are today.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 
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