South Korea: Higher rates, slowing growth, and KRW vulnerability
BOK maintains hawkish tilt.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying26 Aug 2022
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The Bank of Korea raised the benchmark repo rate by 25bps to 2.50% at yesterday’s meeting. The BOK revised up the 2023 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 2.9%, substantially higher than its 2% policy target. Although recognizing the increase in growth risks, the BOK stressed the need to maintain a tight policy stance to “prevent the entrenchment of high inflation”.

The BOK’s hawkish tone on inflation corroborates our view that it will hike rates further in the rest of this year, by 25bps each at the October and November meetings. We think the BOK will shift to a more balanced policy stance at the year end, as the signs of growth slowdown further increase. Latest data showed that exports already slowed sharply to 3.9% YoY in the first 20 days of August, down from 14.2% during the same period of July. Semiconductor exports have started to contract, amid weakening global demand for smartphones, PCs and other downstream consumer electronics products. 

The positive support on the KRW from yesterday’s BOK rate hike should be temporary. The differential between BOK repo rate and Fed Funds Target Rate will turn negative from September onwards, as the BOK reverts to the normal tightening pace of 25bps, and the Fed continues to hike 50bps. Moreover, the recent further depreciation of the KRW was driven by South Korea’s weakening fundamentals. Trade deficit widened to a record USD10.2bn during 1-20 August, as a result of slowing exports and still expensive energy imports. The rapid deterioration in trade/current account balance suggests a rise in the KRW’s vulnerability during the strong USD environment.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]

 
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