USD Rates: Peak duration fear
Recession risks increasingly under watch.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow24 Jun 2022
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

The market might finally be getting to the point of peak duration fear. There are several markers that we have been watching to get a sense of where we are in pricing in tightening. These include financial conditions, implied real rates, data and Fed actions / stance. A few of these markers have been hit (stressed financial conditions, high implied real yields) and these typically acted as circuit breakers, driving US yields lower. We would also note that the trigger for lower US yields overnight came from weak PMI figures from the Eurozone, driving 10Y Bund yields below 1.50%. With DM economies facing similar challenges (high inflation, and rapidly rising real rates), the market extrapolated that it would only be a matter of time before the US economy slows.

There are some signs that inflation might be peaking, even if data has not softened yet. As the Fed got serious on curbing inflation, 10Y breakevens have fallen close to 2.50%, from as high as 3.0% in April. Inflation expectations are clearly anchored as real rates rose. Second, selected commodity prices including oil and copper are dropping. While the feedthrough unto CPI will not be immediate, there should be some relief for cost-push inflation. The market has now gravitated towards our view (see here, here) that the Fed need not be overly aggressive in tightening, only to reverse course shortly after. Peak Fed funds rate as priced by the market is close to 3.5% (our forecast) compared to 4.0% just a few trading sessions ago.

We think that 10Y yields close to 3.0% looks a tad low. The path to a recession is not set yet. As attention shifts to slowing growth, the Fed’s reaction function will adjust accordingly. While a few more Jumbos are likely, we would note that the harder the Fed goes, the shorter the tightening cycle would be. If a less aggressive Fed (one of the major contributors of volatility this year) averts a sharp slowdown, the economy could well bounce from a soft patch quite quickly. On the topside, we think that 3.50% might be a difficult hurdle to cross in the near term.


Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.