HKD rates: First HKMA intervention since 2019
Intervention and higher rates to defend peg
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse13 May 2022
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The Hong Kong Dollar reached the weak end of its trading band after the stronger-than-expected US inflation data in mid-week; consequently, the HKMA intervened by buying HKD6.95bn to defend the peg, first time since 2019. Selling pressure on HKD has been strong in the past month. 1M HIBOR-LIBOR spread widened from 1bp in mid-February to over -66bps of late. DXY Index once reached 104.8 this week. To stabilize the HKD, the HKMA will continue to extract liquidity in the market by buying HKD, in our view. Given the experience from the previous rate hike cycle, the Aggregate Balance will drop below HKD100bn from the current level of HKD338bn when the Fed Funds Target Rate rises from 0.25% to 2.00%. Given this, we think 1M-HIBOR will likely increase from 0.18% to 1.8% and 2.2% by end 3Q and 4Q respectively.

Longer tenor rates such as the 12M-HIBOR has already leapfrogged from 0.43% in early-Jan to 2.42%. We expect local banks will raise the Prime lending rate by 0.125% by end-3Q to maintain the NIM. Spread between Prime rate and 1M-HIBOR should stay around 300bps. As for the Hong Kong govvies, funding needs from fiscal stimulus will elevate bond yields. According to  the government, fiscal balance as percentage of GDP will fall from surplus of 0.7% in FY21/22 to deficit of 1.9% in FY22/23. In fact, spread between Hong Kong and US 10Y govvies yields has compressed to around 20bps lately. Compared to the last rate hike cycle, the spread could widen to -120bps. We project the yield to hit 3.30% by end-2022. Structural flattening will continue, with the 2Y yield is expected to reach 3.00% by end of this year. 

On retail government bonds, subscription of the first government inflation-linked 3Y Retail Green Bond amounted to HKD32.8bn. This is 2.2x of the issuance target. If inflation stays moderated at 2.2% in 2022 (the city is lesser affected by rising commodity prices, see HKSAR: Downgrading GDP forecast, 4 May 2022), annual return will likely be contained at the guaranteed yield of 2.50%. Compared to other govvies with same tenor (e.g., yield of 3Y UST rose to around 2.75%), the return is not particularly attractive. Institutional investors’ interest in absorbing it in the secondary market is likely to be muted.

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]
 
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