Yen selloff set to halt
The yen appears to be at the mercy of American inflation expectations, which means the current selloff is likely to stall unless US rates keep moving higher.
The ratio between three-month call and put options on the dollar-yen currency pair – a so-called risk-reversal – has been tracking closely a commonly used measure of market expectations for US consumer price gains, the 5Y/5Y forward rate. And with inflation expectations surging, that dynamic has helped make the Japanese currency the worst performer this month among G-10 peers.
The yen has weakened more than 2.5% against the greenback so far in October to around 114 per dollar, while most other major Developed Markets counterparts have notched gains. And it is down close to 10% for the whole of 2021. Meanwhile, solid economic growth in the US coupled with supply chain difficulties and a commodities’ shortage has pushed inflation expectations to levels unseen since 2017. The upshot is that those expectations of price gains probably need to keep on rising from here for the yen move to maintain momentum.
More bearishness in the yen “would involve breakevens rising towards 3% and a new selloff in the bond market, which is now on hold”, according to strategists. But with positioning on the currency potentially having peaked, the move in dollar-yen could falter if it fails to punch through 115 this week, they wrote in a note Tuesday (19 October).
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show that speculative bets against the yen have already increased in the past few weeks. While that may go further, it could also mean that traders might soon look to tap the brakes on the most recent move. – Bloomberg News.
The US Dollar Index slipped 0.19% to 93.558, the euro climbed 0.15% to USD1.1651, the pound gained 0.20% to USD1.3824, and the yen strengthened 0.06% to 114.31 per dollar.
The information published by DBS Bank Ltd. (company registration no.: 196800306E) (“DBS”) is for information only. It is based on information or opinions obtained from sources believed to be reliable (but which have not been independently verified by DBS, its related companies and affiliates (“DBS Group”)) and to the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group does not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. The publication and distribution of the information does not constitute nor does it imply any form of endorsement by DBS Group of any person, entity, services or products described or appearing in the information. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment or securities. Foreign exchange transactions involve risks. You should note that fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may result in losses. You may wish to seek your own independent financial, tax, or legal advice or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate.
The information published is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction; nor is it calculated to invite, nor does it permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction in any jurisdiction or country in which such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation or where such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DBS Group to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country, and should not be viewed as such. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, the information, services or products described or appearing in the information are not specifically intended for or specifically targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction.
The information is the property of DBS and is protected by applicable intellectual property laws. No reproduction, transmission, sale, distribution, publication, broadcast, circulation, modification, dissemination, or commercial exploitation such information in any manner (including electronic, print or other media now known or hereafter developed) is permitted.
DBS Group and its respective directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services to any persons or entities mentioned.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group accepts no liability for any losses or damages (including direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental or loss of profits) of any kind arising from or in connection with any reliance and/or use of the information (including any error, omission or misstatement, negligent or otherwise) or further communication, even if DBS Group has been advised of the possibility thereof.
The information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is distributed (a) in Singapore, by DBS Bank Ltd.; (b) in China, by DBS Bank (China) Ltd; (c) in Hong Kong, by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited; (d) in Taiwan, by DBS Bank (Taiwan) Ltd; (e) in Indonesia, by PT DBS Indonesia; and (f) in India, by DBS Bank Ltd, Mumbai Branch.