CIO Insights 2Q23
Break in the Clouds
Chief Investment Office - Hong Kong28 Apr 2023
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Dear valued clients,

Views on global economic growth—coloured by a year of massive central bank rate hikes and the current banking sector debacle—are now polarised between a soft and hard landing scenario.

These mixed sentiments are reflected in an inversion of the yield curve (which historically points to a recession) and a rather benign widening of credit spreads (which suggests a less dire scenario).

FOMC members themselves are unclear why unemployment remains at a record low while wage growth persists at this stage of the cycle. Suffice to say, the Fed’s future policy actions will be data dependent.

After last year’s steep fall, it is comforting to lean on the “margins of safety” appearing in equities and bonds today. For example, the price-to-earnings of global equites is at 16 times versus the high of 25 times in 2021; while Investment Grade bond yields trade over 5%, up from the lows of c.1.5%.

Notwithstanding the lack of clarity on economic growth, we believe this is an opportune time to put surplus cash to work, like in a 60% equity and 40% bond construct for a balanced risk portfolio.

On security selection, seek resilience in high quality companies such as those that demonstrate economies of scale as well as those with strong brand franchises that can pass rising input costs to end consumers.

I encourage you to stay the course in your investing. After all, time in the market beats timing the market.

 

Hou Wey Fook, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Topic

Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

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