每周外匯速遞 - 美元、人民幣升幅有限 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部 – 財富管理10 Jan 2022


    本周焦點

    隨著市場的焦點從Omicron轉移至央行貨幣政策,FOMC會議紀要意外的鷹派訊號、美聯儲官員的鷹派言論,以及美國勞動力保持緊俏的跡象(12月失業率下降幅度及工資增長幅度皆超乎預期),帶動美國10年期國債收益率及實際收益率大幅上漲。因此,科技股領跌美股。日圓因息差因素而受壓,而避險情緒升溫則導致大宗商品貨幣回落。不過,英鎊、歐元和加元保持堅挺,分別受惠於英國央行加息預期、歐洲股市資金流入和歐洲央行提早加息預期,以及油價上升。受此影響,美元指數跌穿96的水平。展望本周,市場將密切關注美國12月CPI及零售銷售,以判斷數據是否支持美聯儲顯著轉鷹。

    本周外幣買賣策略

    美匯指數
    市場對Omicron的擔憂逐漸降溫,同時對美聯儲快速收緊貨幣政策的預期升溫。具體而言,FOMC會議紀要顯示美聯儲官員認為需要比早前預期更早及更快地加息,部分官員更提及開始加息後進行縮表。這加上最新就業數據顯示勞動力市場緊俏及工資通脹壓力上升,驅使市場將美聯儲首次加息時間提早至3月,並推高美國10年期名義和實際收益率。不過,由於主要國家國債收益率携手上漲,美國長息向上未能幫助防止美元下跌。因美元净多倉過於集中,短期上升空間或有限。

    本周關注:
    美國12月消費者物價指數 (12 Jan 2022, 21:30 HKT)
    美國12月零售銷售 (14 Jan 2022, 21:30 HKT)

    阻力位: DXY 97.30
    支持位: DXY 94.50



    人民幣
    美元/人民幣上升至去年11月以來新高。由於市場避險的原因由"Omicron"轉為"美聯儲加快收緊貨幣政策",避險情緒不再利好人民幣。另外,中國央行官媒再度警告人民幣的下行風險,並列舉多個負面因素包括利差縮小、經濟分歧收窄、貿易順差縮小,以及風險預期差逆轉。由此可見,央行依然嘗試扭轉人民幣單邊升值預期。換言之,即使今年基本面因素(包括利差猶存、經常帳盈餘維持,以及外來直接投資净流入延續)利好人民幣,央行的取態仍可能限制人民幣升幅。

    本周關注:
    中國12月貿易收支 (14 Jan 2022, 09:45 HKT)

    阻力位: USDCNH 6.4000 / CNHHKD 1.2340
    支持位: USDCNH 6.3200 / CNHHKD 1.2180



    加元
    兩項因素支持加元跑贏多數貨幣。一方面,加拿大貿易順差擴大及12月就業數據强勁,意味著經濟及就業狀況足以支持加拿大央行在短時間内加息。另一方面,油價大幅上升。具體而言,OPEC+決定2月維持每日擴大產量40萬桶的計劃、部分成員國出現供應受阻的情況、市場的Omicron削弱原油需求的擔憂降溫,以及美國上周原油庫存持續下降,支持油價上升至7星期高位。然而,由於油市料難重現去年光景,且市場已大致消化加拿大央行今年加息預期,加元升幅或有限。

    阻力位: USDCAD 1.2900 / CADHKD 6.2320
    支持位: USDCAD 1.2500 / CADHKD 6.0400



    澳元
    雖然市場對Omicron的擔憂降溫,但對美聯儲收緊貨幣政策步伐過急從而為市場帶來衝擊的擔憂升溫。因此,澳元/美元回落至0.72下方。不過,由於澳元净空倉的規模處於歷史高位附近,反彈的可能性或大於下行風險。首先,中國央行可能在年内進一步降準甚至降息。這可能利好鐵礦石市場。其次,若工資通脹壓力上升,澳儲行可能在2月調整買債計劃後逐漸轉鷹。

    本周關注:
    澳洲11月貿易收支 (11 Jan 2022, 08:30 HKT)

    阻力位: AUDUSD 0.7290 / AUDHKD 5.6780
    支持位: AUDUSD 0.7080 / AUDHKD 5.5220



    英鎊
    英鎊表現强勁。一方面,英國政府宣佈放寬旅游限制措施。這令市場對Omicron的擔憂進一步降溫。另一方面,儘管市場對美聯儲加快收緊貨幣政策的預期升溫,但同時亦加大對英國央行加息的押注,因此英國國債收益率明顯上升。具體而言,英國央行最新調查顯示當地企業更計劃在未來一年加價5%,主因是供應鏈問題猶存、能源價格高企,以及工資通脹壓力上升。鑒於通脹風險上升,英國央行較大機會進一步加息。不過,急升一輪之後,英鎊或面臨短暫回調的風險。

    本周關注:
    英國11月工業生產 (14 Jan 2022, 15:00 HKT)

    阻力位: GBPUSD 1.3600 / GBPHKD 10.5950
    支持位: GBPUSD 1.3350 / GBPHKD 10.4100



    紐元
    紐元/美元跌穿0.68的關口,因美國長債收益率顯著上升,以及避險情緒升溫。由於市場已大致消化對紐儲行加息的預期,央行因素難對紐元帶來支持。另外,紐西蘭主要出口乳製品需求不及硬商品强勁。不過,若邊境重開,紐西蘭旅游業復甦的希望可能支持紐元。另外,自從紐元倉位轉為净空倉後,該貨幣下行空間或有限。

    阻力位: NZDUSD 0.6900 / NZDHKD 5.3750
    支持位: NZDUSD 0.6700 / NZDHKD 5.2260



    歐元
    美聯儲快速收緊貨幣政策的預期升溫,惟歐元仍保持堅挺。一方面,歐洲股市資金流入或提供一些支持。另一方面,市場對歐洲央行提早加息的預期升溫。具體而言,歐洲央行官員Kazaks呼應其他鷹派官員的言論,表示若通脹出現持續上升的前景,不能排除加息及進一步削減貨幣刺激措施的可能。而歐元區12月CPI按年增速意外創1991年以來新高,則為這些言論提供依據。短期内,除非數據顯示歐洲通脹風險降溫,否則歐元可能維持區間波動的走勢。

    本周關注:
    歐元區11月工業生產 (12 Jan 2022, 18:00 HKT)

    阻力位: EURUSD 1.1430 / EURHKD 8.9150
    支持位: EURUSD 1.1200 / EURHKD 8.7240



    日圓
    隨著市場對Omicron的擔憂降溫,以及美國10年期名義和實際收益率顯著上升,美元/日圓突破116的關口,並創2017年以來新高。不過,美聯儲收緊貨幣政策的速度過急將衝擊經濟及市場的擔憂,推升避險情緒,並幫助日圓收復部分失地。儘管美國與日本之間的貨幣政策分歧可能令日圓持續在低位徘徊,惟市場情緒脆弱及日圓净空倉較多,可能限制日圓短缐跌幅。

    阻力位: USDJPY 117.00 / JPYHKD 6.8330
    支持位: USDJPY 114.00 / JPYHKD 6.6660



    瑞郎
    本周避險情緒升溫之際,瑞郎回落,再次驗證該貨幣的走勢與避險需求的正相關性有所下降。另外,10年期美債收益率顯著上漲,為瑞郎帶來一定的下行壓力。接下來,瑞士與美國之間的貨幣政策分歧可能繼續利淡瑞郎,惟市場情緒亦將影響瑞郎的走向。換言之,當風險偏好再度上升,瑞郎的跌幅可能有限。

    阻力位: USDCHF 0.9380 / CHFHKD 8.5700
    支持位: USDCHF 0.9110 / CHFHKD 8.2900

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