India rates: Jump in inflation confirms June hike
More RBI hikes and interventions ahead.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao13 May 2022
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India’s April inflation rose 7.8% yoy, close to our above-consensus forecast of 7.7%, highest pace in eight years and well in excess of the RBI’s target of 2-6% range. Increase in contribution of cereals, edible oil and perishables was behind the strong 8% yoy rise in food, whilst hike in petrol, cooking gas and natural gas filtered through fuel and input costs. Most services such as health, transport, household goods & services, excluding education, rose above 7% pace. Signs of a broadening out of inflationary pressures was evident in a jump in the core reading (ex food and fuel) to 7.0% yoy from 6.3% month before. Add to this, other catalysts, for instance spillover of imported pressures, upward pressure on fertilisers (impact to be partly offset by higher subsidies), and fallout of inclement weather i.e., heatwave, are likely to keep May inflation on the firmer end of 6-7%. In anticipation of April’s firm reading and to front run US FOMC’s hike in May, the RBI monetary policy committee had raised the repo rate by 40bp in an off cycle move last week. We expect a further 40-50bp hike in June, as part of the total 150bp hikes projected for 2022. The RBI’s FY23 inflation forecast is likely to be revised up by 50-70bps from the current 5.7%. 

Speculation over imminent central bank intervention has triggered a rally in bonds in the past two days, with 10Y INR yield (generic) correcting ~25bp. The RBI is reportedly open to bond purchases but prefers other measures such as easing investment rules for banks (held-to maturity) to boost demand for government securities, according to sources cited by the press. Yet, authorities will play a balancing act, as the cash reserve ratio hike, intervention to support the INR and FX swaps, are intended to soak liquidity, which in turn opens the door for open market operations without jeopardising the inflation outlook. USD/INR briefly rose to a record high of above 77.60 on Thursday but attracted strong intervention, enabling a pullback by close.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]

 

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