Thailand: Gradual interest rate hikes ahead
The BOT kicked off monetary normalisation with a 25bps hike, as expected, and we see further increases for the rest of 2022.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng11 Aug 2022
  • A recovering economy lowers the need for a very easy policy, shifting the focus to high inflation
  • Our multiple-indicator inflation heatmap points to elevated price pressures
  • The BOT is looking at gradual hikes to soften the hit to vulnerable parts of the economy
  • Forecast implications: Policy rate to return to 4Q19 level of 1.25% by end-2022
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

For detailed charts and heatmap, please download PDF

In a move that has been signalled since the June meeting, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75% from a record-low of 0.50% during its August 10 meeting. This marked the first increase since December 2018. The decision was however not unanimous, with one out of seven committee members voting for a larger rate increase of 50bps to reduce the risk of aggressive future rate hikes. The rest voted for a 25bps increase. Our read of the policy statement points to further interest rate hikes until end-2022, with Thailand’s monetary normalisation playing catch-up. Therefore, we now expect the BOT to follow through with gradual hikes totalling 50bps to return the policy rate to 4Q19 level of 1.25% by end-2022 (vs 1.00% previously).    

Signalling gradual normalisation

We see two key messages regarding the future monetary policy stance in the BOT’s policy statement. More details on the policy considerations will be revealed in the minutes released later this month.

First, Thai policymakers assessed that the unprecedented easy monetary policy stance that was adopted to deal with the pandemic is less needed, given Thailand’s current economic growth and inflation dynamics. The BOT expects the Thai economy to continue recovering. Growth would be supported by the pick-up in foreign tourist arrivals and private consumption, and would not be derailed by increased risk of a global slowdown. Quarterly real GDP is set to return to the pre-pandemic level by end-2022.

At the same time, Thailand’s headline inflation has picked up to elevated levels, well above the BOT’s 1-3% inflation target range (7.6% YoY in July). Core inflation also rose to multi-year highs of 3.0% YoY as of July, amid broadening price pressures, with upside risks from faster cost pass-through and demand-pull effects. Our multiple-indicator inflation heatmap also points to still-elevated price pressures that warrant policy tightening to prevent a disanchoring of medium-term inflation expectations (so far contained within the inflation target range).

Thailand’s monetary policy remains very accommodative, given that the real policy rate stood at a multi-year low of ~3.5% as of July. Even after yesterday’s 25bps increase, more hikes will be required to make policy less easy.

Second, the BOT communicated that ‘monetary policy normalization should be done in a gradual and measured manner…’. This dampens the likelihood of aggressive 50bps hikes in a single meeting seen in 2005. We think that policymakers prefer modest hikes as they try to strike a delicate balance between normalising policy but avoid slamming the brakes on the nascent recovery and making conditions worse for weaker parts of the economy. Certain groups including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and low-income households remain vulnerable, despite improving debt servicing ability due to a recovering economy. Targeted financial measures remain intact to provide continued support. 

The BOT meanwhile continues to see the Thai baht’s depreciation moving in line with regional currencies and driven by the stronger US dollar. The policy rate is unlikely to be shifted aggressively to deal with the currency. Excessive volatility is likely to be tackled with ad-hoc intervention, helped by more-than-adequate reserve adequacy, in our view.

To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.

 
 

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist
[email protected]


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here
.

Topic

Explore more

E & S Focus
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.