美元有望再創20年新高 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡31 Aug 2022


    美匯指數在不足兩星期的時間內反彈逾4%至109.27的水平,與7月創下的20年新高109.294僅咫尺之遙,三個原因支持美匯指數在短時間內飆升。

    第一,熱浪及乾旱天氣加劇歐洲天然氣危機,從而導致歐羅和英鎊急跌,前者相對美元更跌至20年新低。

    第二,避險情緒升溫,支持避險貨幣美元。具體而言,自從中國央行意外減息之後,市場對中國經濟前景感到擔憂。這加上歐洲疲軟的經濟,削弱風險胃納。標普500指數由8月16日至8月24日期間下跌接近5%,亦反映了疲弱的投資情緒。
    歐加息速度料遜儲局

    第三,市場對美國利率重新定價。早前由於美國公佈的7月通脹率回落幅度超乎預期,市場一度預期美聯儲將在明年初就開始減息,並預計今年餘下時間將逐漸放慢加息步伐。然而,隨著美聯儲官員不斷釋放鷹派訊號,加上美國最新數據包括7月核心零售銷售及核心耐用品定單等表現超乎預期,驅使市場在上周五美聯儲鮑威爾講話之前,快速調整預期,包括預計終端利率將達到約3.8厘,以及2023年底才開始減息。受惠於此,美元和美債收益率齊齊反彈。

    展望未來,美匯指數是否能夠再創20年新高?筆者認為機會較大。

    首先,在天然氣短缺的情況下,歐洲積極尋求替代品,以求在冬天來臨時有足夠的資源滿足工業生產、用電及供暖等需求。然而,與亞洲之間的激烈競爭,以及基礎設施的不足,導致歐洲難以用液態天然氣替代天然氣。至於極端天氣,則阻礙歐洲通過核能、煤炭或原油發電。由此可見,若今年迎來寒冬,歐洲能源危機將惡化,從而增添當地的滯脹風險。同時,在經濟疲軟及金融分裂風險的拖累之下,歐洲央行的加息速度難與美聯儲局媲美。因此,歐羅仍可能反覆受壓,從而支持美元走強。

    其次,全球衰退及滯脹的風險尚未消退,加上地緣政治局勢緊張,意味着避險情緒可能反覆升溫。

    第三,在美國工資增長和房租增長強勁,能源價格可能在冬天進一步上升,以及美國通脹預期仍未明顯回落的情況下,美聯儲仍可能比市場預期的更加進取地收緊貨幣政策,以壓低通脹。

    總括而言,雖然市場一面倒買入美元後,可能出現長倉獲利,從而推低美元可能,但基本面因素顯示美元面臨風險仍偏向上行。

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