逆風吹襲人民幣走勢展望 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡24 Aug 2022


    美元兌離岸人民幣自從4月以來,主要在50天、100天和200天移動平均線上方波動。投資者或許能列舉出一系列利淡人民幣的因素。

    第一,中美貨幣政策分歧。上周一,中國央行意外地降息。同時,美聯儲勢將進一步加息。市場對中美息差擴大的預期,驅使一些投資者進行買美元沽離岸人民幣的套息交易。

    第二,中美衝突。美國眾議院議長佩洛西訪台後,中國宣佈在台灣附近舉行新一輪軍事演習,並對佩洛西實施制裁。這影響市場對中美關係將在短時間內改善的期望。

    第三,中國疲軟的經濟及樓市。儘管中國政府加碼財政刺激政策,但可能不足以抵消疲軟的房地產及內需。中國PMI、信貸及工業生產等數據多數遜預期,增添對經濟前景的擔憂。

    然而亦有一些因素,可減輕人民幣下行壓力。

    首先,自從人民幣在4月至5月期間急跌後,市場恐慌拋售人民幣的情緒有所緩和。在今年6月1日至8月10日,離岸人民幣相對美元僅下跌約0.6%,表現優於多數G7及亞洲貨幣。

    其次,隨著中國貿易順差持續創紀錄新高,以及外資直接投資保持強勁,中國境內外幣存款維持較大規模。

    第三,人民幣走勢亦取決於美元因素。美聯儲7月會議紀要顯示官員認為可能適合在未來某個時候放緩加息步伐,美匯指數料主要在104.5至107.5的區間內波動。

    簡而言之,美元兌離岸人民幣在未來幾個月內可能主要在6.70至6.85的區間內波動,並可能在6.85至6.90遇到強勁阻力。

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