澳元升幅或有限 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡08 Aug 2022


    澳元兌美元自從7月中跌至兩年低位0.6682以來持續反彈,並在上周一曾經觸及逾一個月高位的0.7047,升幅超過5%。

    此輪澳元反彈主要有兩個原因:第一是風險情緒降溫,雖然美國6月通脹再創41年新高,但聯儲局並沒有選擇加息1厘。在7月會議中,聯儲局一如預期加息0.75厘後,同時表示未來加息幅度將取決於數據,主席鮑威爾更稱加息步伐可能在某個時間開始放慢。此番被視為鴿派言論,令美國國債收益率和美國實際收益率顯著回落,其中10年期美債收益率一度跌至4月以來最低的2.51厘,10年期實際收益率亦急跌至5月以來最低的0.048厘。受惠美債收益率回落,標普500指數由7月中至8月初一度反彈超過10%。

     央行或放慢加息步伐

    第二是美元走弱,由於美債收益率下跌,以及風險情緒改善,美元指數一度下跌至105.05的一個月低位。第三,市場對澳儲行大幅加息預期高漲。雖然澳洲第二季通脹率低於預期,報6.1%,但仍與2000年高位持平,並創1990年以來最高。因此對於較遲才開始加息的澳儲行而言,市場普遍預期該央行加息空間較大。

    不過上周一至上周三期間,澳元急速回落,相對美元下跌超過2%至0.6886,背後原因主要有三個:首先,隨著聯儲局官員紛紛重新釋放鷹派信號,一致表示仍需要繼續加息壓低通脹,美元和美債收益率大幅反彈,其中2年期和10年期美債收益率在短短兩日時間回升超過30個基點;其次是中美關係緊張,令避險情緒升溫;第三是澳儲行鴿派加息,上周澳儲行加息0.5厘至1.85厘後,釋放偏鴿派信號,例如表示在利率正常化方面沒有預設路徑,意味未來加息步伐將取決於通脹和勞動力市場數據。同時澳儲行預計通脹率將在今年第四季見頂,以及預計失業率將會上升。由此可見,該央行可能逐漸放慢加息步伐。

    值得留意的是,隨著美國公佈的最新經濟數據表現良好,市場對美國經濟衰退擔憂緩和,加上部份美國企業盈利理想,以及中美關係未進一步惡化,令市場情緒改善。另外,距離聯儲局下一次會議仍有近兩個月時間,這段時間若美國加息預期沒有進一步升溫,美元和美債收益率升幅均可能有限。有鑑於此,未來1至2個月澳元料不會回到7月14日低位0.6682。不過澳儲行加息空間減少、鐵礦石市場前景欠佳,再加上全球經濟衰退風險猶存,意味澳元升幅可能有限,相對美元或在0.7050或0.7120遇阻。

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