澳元由兩年低位反彈或受阻 (Chinese Only)


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財資市場部環球市場策略師 - 李若凡18 Jul 2022


    澳元兌美元跌至0.6800下方,並創兩年新低,主要是因為經濟衰退擔憂及避險情緒升溫。由於市場對經濟衰退及需求轉弱感到擔憂,彭博大宗商品現價指數從年内高位下跌逾15%。

    回顧5月份,澳元兌美元曾跌至兩年低位的0.6829,惟隨後快速反彈至接近0.7300的水平。這種情形會否重演?筆者認為機會較低,因目前情況與5月有三大不同之處。

    第一,有別於5月份,近期市場並沒有顯著削減對美國聯儲局年内的加息押注(目前仍預計年底將加息至3.3厘至3.4厘)。由於美國5月通脹率創40年新高,聯儲局立場漸趨鷹派。繼6月FOMC加息75個基點後,聯儲局主席鮑威爾多次強調,將繼續加息以壓低通脹,而其他官員亦表示支持在7月FOMC進一步加息75個基點。

    弱歐羅支持美元強勢

    第二,市場於5月份不斷增加對歐洲央行加息的押注,而近期則不斷削減這種押注。一方面,歐羅區6月PMI跌多於預期。在能源危機的衝擊之下,歐羅區經濟前景逐漸轉差。另一方面,由於歐洲央行尚未公布關於對抗金融市場分裂新工具的細節,市場懷疑部分國家,例如意大利和希臘,或因債務負擔沉重,而未能夠承受歐洲央行快速加息帶來的影響。

    回顧2011年,歐洲央行加息至0.75厘,隨後意大利和德國10年期國債收益率差距擴大,至超過550個基點的水平(目前為199個基點左右),最終甚至引發歐債危機。由此可見,歐洲央行不太可能如市場預期般大幅加息,亦不太可能比聯儲局更加進取。因此,弱歐羅支持美元保持強勁。

    衰退憂慮打擊商品價格

    第三,市場對全球經濟衰退的擔憂持續升溫。回顧5月份,雖然市場對經濟增速放慢感到擔憂,但當時市場對聯儲局大幅加息的預期降溫,因此並沒有過度憂慮經濟衰退。相反,近期,由於聯儲局不顧疲軟的經濟數據(例如實際消費者支出及ISM製造業指數)保持鷹派,市場擔憂高通脹率和高利率將對經濟帶來沉重打擊。因此,基礎金屬急跌,其中期貨銅和鐵礦石價格分別由今年高位下跌逾25%和35%。除非聯儲局的取態不再那麽鷹派,以及經濟數據出現趨穩的跡象,否則衰退擔憂可能繼續在短期内打擊大宗商品市場。

    除了美元強勁,以及大宗商品市場的短期前景欠佳之外,澳洲央行立場不及預期鷹派,亦可能利淡澳元。具體而言,澳洲央行於7月5日如期加息50個基點,但同時表示通脹預期仍然受控。由此可見,澳洲央行的加息幅度最終符合市場預期的難度較高(目前市場預期,一年後澳洲利率將由目前的1.35厘上升至3.7厘左右,高於多數主要經濟體)。

    澳元中期回升2因素支持

    儘管如此,中期而言,澳元仍有可能回升,主要原因有兩個。第一,若中國需求復甦,以及綠色轉型繼續支持長遠需求,基礎金屬的下跌空間可能有限。第二,若聯儲局加息周期接近尾聲,同時市場對減息的預期開始升溫,美元可能由高位回落。

    總括而言,短期内,澳元兌美元可能相對受壓,若站穩在0.6750下方,或進一步向下。至於中期而言,澳元兌美元則可能反彈,若站穩在0.7200上方,可能進一步走強。

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