每周外匯速遞 - 放慢加息?聚焦聯儲侷會議 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部 – 財富管理31 Oct 2022


    本周焦點

    上周美元指數一度跌穿110的水平,因美國公佈的一系列經濟數據遜於預期,推升市場對美聯儲放慢加息的預期,從而令美債收益率下跌。不過,上周加拿大央行意外地僅加息50個基點。歐洲央行如期加息75個基點後沒有討論縮表。而日本央行則保持寬鬆政策,並表示沒有看到短期内加息或退出寬鬆的必要。因此,加元、歐元和日圓表現遜色,最終拖累其他貨幣相對美元亦有所下跌。展望本周,市場將密切關注美國、英國和澳洲央行議息會議。美聯儲和英國央行料將分別加息75個基點。同時,美國、紐西蘭和加拿大將公佈最新失業率,而歐洲和瑞士則將公佈最新通脹數據。除非美聯儲明確釋放偏鷹派訊號,否則美元指數或仍將在110左右水平找到支持。

    本周外幣買賣策略

    美匯指數 
    美元指數一度跌穿110。内部因素方面,美國數據(10月PMI、10月CB消費者信心指數,以及樓市數據)遜於預期,令市場對美聯儲12月開始放慢加息的預期升溫。美元和美債過度集中的長倉平盤,令美元指數和美債收益率携手回落。外部因素方面,歐洲天然氣價格急跌及英國政治鬧劇暫告一段落,支持歐元和英鎊反彈。不過,隨著加拿大和歐洲央行釋放比預期鴿派的訊號,以及美國核心PCE、通脹預期、就業成本指數及個人支出高企,美元指數反彈至110.5上方。展望本周,除非美聯儲明確釋放偏鷹派訊號,否則美元指數或仍將在110左右水平找到支持。

    本周關注:
    美國11月FOMC (03 Nov 2022, 02:00HKT)
    美國10月失業率 (04 Nov 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: DXY 112.40
    支持位: DXY 108.40



    人民幣 
    美元/離岸人民幣升至有紀錄以來最高的7.3749。首先,資金外流是推低人民幣的主因。由於中國二十大之後清零政策和樓市調控政策保持不變,市場對中國經濟前景的擔憂升溫,導致内地股市於上周一錄得有紀錄以來最大的淨流出。與此同時,中國央行可能為了支持經濟而保持寬鬆貨幣政策。因此,中美息差擴大或令資金持續流出境内債市。其次,若外需轉弱,中國貿易順差或收窄。再者,雖然中國央行採取措施遏制人民幣單向貶值預期,但中間價顯示當局未必介意人民幣溫和貶值。若人民幣指數向長期平均值收斂,人民幣相對美元或仍將反覆走弱。

    本周關注:
    中國10月製造業PMI (31 Oct 2022, 09:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCNH 7.4000 / CNHHKD 1.1060
    支持位: USDCNH 7.1000 / CNHHKD 1.0600



    加元 
    加元跑輸主要貨幣,因加拿大央行上周三議息會議結果比預期鴿派,該央行僅加息50個基點,少於市場預期的75個基點。此外,加拿大央行警告未來幾個月經濟面臨衰退風險。由於加拿大央行預期通脹率將在2023年底跌穿3%,且行長表示越來越接近加息周期的尾聲,市場對該央行放慢加息的預期升溫。不過,若其他主要央行包括美聯儲亦變得不再那麽鷹派,且各大央行不再那麽鷹派的立場提振風險情緒及支持油價保持堅挺,加元相對美元的跌幅或有限。

    本周關注:
    加拿大10月失業率 (04 Nov 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCAD 1.3850 / CADHKD 5.8570
    支持位: USDCAD 1.3400 / CADHKD 5.6660



    英鎊 
    英鎊/美元一度突破1.1600的水平,因市場對美聯儲轉變鷹派立場的預期升溫,令美元全面回落。英國新首相宣佈將公佈經濟刺激計劃的時間由10月31日推遲至11月17日,目的是為了爭取時間以作出對英國經濟更好的決定。雖然此舉可能為英國央行帶來難題,但市場普遍預計該央行將在本周會議上加息75個基點。這加上英國政治鬧劇暫告一段落,支持英鎊反彈。然而,在英國基本面仍疲軟(10月PMI跌多於預期,反映生活成本危機猶存)的情況下,除非本周英國央行如預期般鷹派,同時美聯儲如預期般釋放偏鴿派訊號,否則英鎊短期升幅或有限。

    本周關注:
    英國央行11月議息決議 (03 Nov 2022, 20:00HKT)

    阻力位: GBPUSD 1.1740 / GBPHKD 9.2140
    支持位: GBPUSD 1.1200 / GBPHKD 8.7890



    澳元 
    澳元/美元大幅反彈,甚至一度突破0.65的水平。一方面,市場情緒改善,以及美元全面走弱,因市場對美聯儲放慢加息的預期升溫。另一方面,市場開始出現對澳儲行本周加息多於25個基點的預期,因澳洲第三季CPI全面超乎預期(按季和按年分別上升1.8%和7.3%)。不過,通脹壓力主要來自汽油和建築成本相關的大宗商品價格上升,以及極端天氣造成的食品價格上升。這些因素可能緩和。另外,澳洲就業數據不及預期,亦可能減輕通脹壓力。總括而言,若美元全面走弱,或澳儲行比預期更加鷹派,澳元或將進一步上升。否則澳元的升幅或受限。

    本周關注:
    澳儲行11月議息決議 (01 Nov 2022, 11:30HKT)

    阻力位: AUDUSD 0.6600 / AUDHKD 5.1800
    支持位: AUDUSD 0.6170 / AUDHKD 4.8420



    紐元 
    紐元/美元進一步上升至0.58上方,主因是市場風險情緒改善。具體而言,美國一系列經濟數據表現遜於預期,再加上澳洲、加拿大和歐洲央行紛紛釋放比預期鴿派的訊號,令市場對美聯儲放慢加息的預期升溫。展望本周,如果美聯儲確實暗示12月開始有放慢加息的可能,美元和美債收益率可能進一步回落,從而支持紐元/美元進一步上升。惟若紐儲行亦開始放慢加息步伐,又或者市場對全球衰退風險的擔憂升溫,紐元的升幅或將受限。

    本周關注:
    紐西蘭第三季失業率 (02 Nov 2022, 05:45HKT)

    阻力位: NZDUSD 0.5990 / NZDHKD 4.7010
    支持位: NZDUSD 0.5510 / NZDHKD 4.3240



    日圓 
    美元/日圓先跌後升至148。首先,日本政府的干預令投資者對沽空日圓保持審慎。其次,上周多間央行比預期鴿派,加上美國公佈疲軟經濟數據,令市場對美聯儲放慢加息的預期升溫,從而導致美債收益率由高位回落。這減輕了日圓的息差壓力。不過,上周日本央行再度保持負利率及收益率曲線控制措施不變、預期下一個財年的通脹率將跌回2%以下,且行長稱不會很快加息或者退出刺激。在日央行保持鴿派的情況下,除非美聯儲轉鴿,否則息差和貿易逆差料將續利淡日圓。

    阻力位: USDJPY 150.00 / JPYHKD 5.4660
    支持位: USDJPY 143.60 / JPYHKD 5.2320



    歐元 
    歐元/美元反彈至1.00上方。一方面,歐洲最新天然氣價格由8月高位回落逾70%,因當地天然比往常暖和。同時,市場預期歐洲經濟轉弱可能削減天然氣需求。另一方面,市場期待歐洲央行加息75個基點,並保持鷹派立場,同時預期美聯儲可能放慢加息。不過,最終歐洲央行不及預期鷹派(當局雖加息75個基點,但據稱沒有計劃在12月會議宣佈開始縮表的時間),令歐元/美元回落至1.00下方。另外,10月PMI數據顯示歐洲經濟疲軟,因此亦利淡歐元。短期内,除非美聯儲釋放鴿派訊號令美元全面走弱,否則歐元區的衰退/滯脹風險或仍限制歐元的升幅。

    本周關注:
    歐元區10月CPI (31 Oct 2022, 18:00HKT)

    阻力位: EURUSD 1.0180 / EURHKD 7.9900
    支持位: EURUSD 0.9730 / EURHKD 7.6360



    瑞郎 
    美元/瑞郎一度回落至0.9842,因美元和美債收益率全面下跌。另外,歐洲天然氣價格顯著回落,亦減輕能源危機擔憂。不過,隨著多間央行陸續釋放比預期更鴿派的立場,美元反彈,導致瑞郎回吐升幅。展望未來,在歐元/瑞郎靠近1.00的情況下,瑞郎相對歐元和美元的跌幅可能有限,因瑞士經常賬盈餘強勁及公共債務較少。此外,為了對抗輸入通脹壓力,瑞士央行或干預以減少瑞郎的跌幅。

    本周關注:
    瑞士10月CPI (31 Oct 2022, 18:00HKT)

    阻力位: USDCHF 1.0150 / CHFHKD 8.0420
    支持位: USDCHF 0.9760 / CHFHKD 7.7320

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