每周外匯速遞 - 美元回落,難言見頂 (Chinese Only)


最新焦點
財資市場部 – 財富管理05 Oct 2022


    本周焦點

    上週匯市繼續大震盪。起初,市場對英國大規模減稅措施將推升當地通脹,並增添債務負擔的擔憂,令英鎊/美元跌至紀錄最低的1.0350。另外,北溪一號可能遭蓄意破壞的消息,令市場擔憂俄羅斯和西方關係惡化。因此,歐元亦急跌。隨著歐元和英鎊反覆受壓,加上避險情緒升溫,美元全面走強,伴隨著美元指數一度升至20年新高的114.78。隨後英國央行出招穩定債市,風險情緒改善、月底之前的空頭回補、英國或日本再度干預市場的擔憂,以及歐洲央行大幅加息的預期,支持英鎊、歐元等主要貨幣相對美元由低位反彈。不過,美國強勁的就業數據、高企的通脹數據,以及美聯儲官員的鷹派言論,仍限制了美元相對主要貨幣的下行壓力。短期内,美元指數或在110找到支持。本周,關注美國和加拿大的失業率及澳洲和紐西蘭儲備銀行的議息會議。

    本周外幣買賣策略

    美匯指數
    美元指數再創20年新高的114.78,主因是英國減稅措施引發一輪英鎊拋售潮,同時能源方面的負面消息令歐元急跌,再加上避險情緒升溫,令大宗商品貨幣下挫。不過,隨著英國央行出手穩定債市,加上歐洲央行大幅加息預期升溫,以及風險情緒改善,美元指數跌穿112。惟最終美國強勁的就業數據、高企的通脹數據,以及美聯儲官員的鷹派言論,限制了美元相對主要貨幣的下行空間。展望本週,市場將密切關注美國非農就業數據(亮麗數據將支持加息)。在美國仍具備經濟和利率相對優勢,同時避險需求高漲的情況下,美元指數的漲勢料未完待續。

    本周關注:
    美國9月ISM製造業指數 (03 Oct 2022, 22:00HKT)
    美國9月失業率 (07 Oct 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: DXY 115.00
    支持位: DXY 110.00



    人民幣
    上周,美元/離岸人民幣升至紀錄新高,並兌在岸人民幣上升至2008年以來新高,因避險情緒升溫支持美元全面走強,以及美元/人民幣中間價逐日調升。不過,周一中國央行宣佈將遠期售匯業務的外匯風險準備金率調整為20%,從而削減遠期抛售人民幣的需求。隨後,中國央行再出口術警告押注人民幣單邊貶值的投資者。這加上市場情緒改善及美元回落,支持人民幣回升。然而,在基本面因素不變(中美利差擴大、中國經濟疲軟及貿易順差收窄,以及美元堅挺)的情況下,即使央行嘗試放緩人民幣跌勢,人民幣相對美元或仍面臨進一步下行的壓力。

    本周關注:
    中國9月財新綜合PMI (08 Oct 2022, 09:45HKT)

    阻力位: USDCNH 7.3000 / CNHHKD 1.1220
    支持位: USDCNH 7.0000 / CNHHKD 1.0750



    加元
    美元/加元升至逾兩年最高的1.3838,因英鎊抛售潮引發恐慌情緒、中歐經濟前景堪憂打擊大宗商品市場,以及美元和美債收益率反覆上升。短期内,上述因素或仍利淡加元。不過,加拿大7月GDP意外地按月增長0.1%,優於預期。若本周公佈的加拿大就業數據顯示當地勞動力市場仍然緊張,或將支持加拿大央行繼續大幅加息。另外,若OPEC+本周宣佈減產,同時天然氣危機提振原油需求,油價或保持堅挺。鑑於加元的淨短倉達到2020年8月以來最大,短期大跌空間或有限。

    本周關注:
    加拿大9月失業率 (07 Oct 2022, 20:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCAD 1.3840 / CADHKD 5.8580
    支持位: USDCAD 1.3400 / CADHKD 5.6710



    英鎊
    英鎊兌美元大幅波動,一度因市場對新政府大規模減稅措施將推升當地通脹及增加英國政府債務負擔(經常賬赤字及財政赤字)的擔憂,而急跌至紀錄新低的1.0350,隨後則因英國央行無限量購買長期英債穩定市場,以及月底前空頭回補而升至1.1150左右。然而,在批評聲音不斷的情況下,若英國政府依然無意修改當前的減稅計畫,市場對該國的信心或繼續被削弱。另外,英國的生活成本危機、滯脹/衰退風險、雙赤字問題難在短時間内消退。這加上避險情緒反覆升溫,或將限制英鎊的漲幅。

    阻力位: GBPUSD 1.15 / GBPHKD 9.0280
    支持位: GBPUSD 1.05 / GBPHKD 8.2420



    澳元
    澳元/美元曾跌至0.64下方,刷新兩年低位。第一,英鎊急跌引發的避險情緒,利淡澳元。第二,市場對歐洲和中國經濟前景的擔憂,令大宗商品受壓。第三,人民幣顯著下跌,亦拖累澳元走弱。週中,英國央行穩定債市的措施,提振風險情緒,並支持澳元/美元回到0.65上方,惟升勢未能延續,反而隨著美國數據和美聯儲官員言論推升美元,澳元/美元再回到0.6450左右。上述利淡因素或反覆壓低澳元。市場預期本周澳儲行將加息40個基點左右,惟近期該央行通常傳達較為鴿派的訊號,料難為澳元帶來支持。

    本周關注:
    澳儲行議息會議 (04 Oct 2022, 11:30HKT)

    阻力位: AUDUSD 0.6700 / AUDHKD 5.2600
    支持位: AUDUSD 0.6360 / AUDHKD 4.9920



    紐元
    紐元/美元在0.5550至0.5750區間內大幅波動,中途反彈主要是因為英國央行出招穩定英國國債,從而提振市場情緒,惟中國以及歐洲包括英國的經濟基本面仍令人擔憂,同時美國居高不下的通脹率及美聯儲官員鷹派的言論仍支持美元反覆上升,因此紐元回升的動力不足。本周,市場將關注紐儲行議息會議,並預計該央行將加息50個基點,惟在其他國家利率逐漸追上紐西蘭利率的情況下,央行因素料難為紐元帶來支持。短期内,紐元料反覆受壓。

    本周關注:
    紐儲行議息會議 (05 Oct 2022, 09:00HKT)

    阻力位: NZDUSD 0.5870 / NZDHKD 4.6080
    支持位: NZDUSD 0.5560 / NZDHKD 4.3640



    日圓
    上周,美元/日圓升至144上方,主因是英鎊急跌引發恐慌情緒,同時美國強勁的就業數據、居高不下的通脹率,以及美聯儲官員的鷹派言論,支持美元和美債收益率反覆上升,其中10年期美債收益率更是自2008年以來首次突破4%的關口。不過,由於市場對日本政府隨時出手干預保持警惕,美元/日圓暫時在145水平遇阻。惟歷史經驗顯示干預對日圓帶來的支持並不可持續。除非日本商品和服務貿易逆差收窄,又或者日本央行或美聯儲轉變當前政策立場,否則日圓或仍受壓。

    本周關注:
    日本8月實際現金收入 (07 Oct 2022, 07:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDJPY 146.00 / JPYHKD 5.6070
    支持位: USDJPY 140.00 / JPYHKD 5.3760



    歐元
    歐元/美元一度跌向0.95,主因是英鎊急跌帶來的漣漪效應,以及能源危機擔憂升溫帶來的打擊(歐洲表示對北溪一號遭到蓄意破壞進行調查,而俄羅斯則表示將停止通過烏克蘭供應天然氣,結果歐洲天然氣價格再次飆升)。不過,隨著英鎊反彈,以及歐洲央行官員表示下次會議可能加息75個基點(德國和歐元區9月CPI皆按年升10%,遠超預期,意味著歐洲央行有較大迫切性進一步大幅加息),歐元/美元回升至0.98上方。然而,歐元的升幅可能有限,因歐洲能源危機持續,同時歐洲央行比美聯儲更加鷹派的可能性不大。

    本周關注:
    歐元區8月PPI (04 Oct 2022, 17:00HKT)

    阻力位: EURUSD 0.9900 / EURHKD 7.7720
    支持位: EURUSD 0.9500 / EURHKD 7.4570



    瑞郎
    自從上周瑞士央行會議之後,美元/瑞郎持續在0.9750上方交易。實際上,由於瑞士的經濟基本面強勁(包括健康的經常賬盈餘及較低的公共債務比率),瑞郎表現優於大部分主要貨幣。然而,在美元全面走強,以及美國與瑞士利率差距擴大(12月中瑞士央行再次加息之前,美聯儲或已再度加息125個基點)的情況下,瑞郎可能繼續承壓,相對美元更可能重試0.99的水平。

    本周關注:
    瑞士9月CPI (03 Oct 2022, 14:30HKT)

    阻力位: USDCHF 1.0000 / CHFHKD 8.1430
    支持位: USDCHF 0.9640 / CHFHKD 7.8490

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