October Macro Insights Livestream


October Surprise.
Group Research, Taimur Baig06 Oct 2020
Photo credit: DBS


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We have changed the focus of our October Livestream from regional funding needs to the mounting uncertainty around the US presidential elections, scheduled less than a month from now. President Trump’s hospitalisation after testing positive for Covid-19 brings up an assortment of scenarios. We don’t think the functioning of the US government, including various economic support measures, will be affected, given the institutional depth in place. We are however concerned about information transparency and possible setback to the election process. Even if he is released from the hospital in a day or two, will there be full information regarding Trump’s health? Will executive orders signed by Trump while in hospital be challenged? Could partisan state legislators try to delay elections on this pretext? Issues such as the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Barrett, vaccine approval, pending stimulus measures, and likely immigration measures, have all been made more complicated by the outbreak from the White House event last week. As far as the presidential election, early in-person voting and mail-in voting, running at record numbers this year, now have a an element of information asymmetry with this October surprise.



Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - G3 & Asia
taimurbaig@dbs.com


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