China Chartbook: Key Takeaway from China’s 14th Five Year Plan


According to our nowcasting model, China’s real GDP growth in 1Q21 could be 19.3%yoy.
Chris Leung, Samuel Tse22 Mar 2021
  • We have upgraded our 2021 growth forecast to 10.5%, compared to +6% projected by Beijing
  • The absence of long-term GDP targets suggests structural reforms to precede high GDP growth
  • Strong emphasis on self-sufficiency on technology, energy and food
  • Target to achieve becoming a middle-class country by 2035 with per capital income at USD20,000…
  • … This implies an average growth of 4.5% for the next 15 years
Photo credit: AFP Photo


• According to our nowcasting model, China’s real GDP growth in 1Q21 could be 19.3%yoy.

• We have upgraded our 2021 growth forecast to 10.5%, compared to +6% projected by Beijing.

• The absence of medium to long-term GDP targets in the 14th 5-year plan suggests structural reforms to precede maintaining high GDP growth.

• Strong emphasis on self-sufficiency on technology, energy and food.

• Absence mentioning of SOE reform indicates State Capitalism will play even a bigger role.

• Target to achieve becoming a middle-class country by 2035 with per capital income at USD20,000. This implies an average growth of 4.5% for the next 15 years.

• China is catching up with the US rapidly, as the economy was equivalent to 70.3% of US economy in 2020.




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Chris Leung

Economist - China & Hong Kong
chrisleung@dbs.com

Samuel Tse

Economist - China & Hong Kong
samueltse@dbs.com


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