USD Rates: Paring excessive pessimism
Reflecting enough bad news.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow18 May 2022
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Sentiment appears to have stabilized as the market digests still firm US data (retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization are all strong) amidst a hawkish Fed. We think that pessimism may have run too far ahead and there may be more unwinding to go in the short term. There are two areas which warrant attention. First, mortgage spreads are extremely wide. At close to 250bps over 30Y US Treasury yields, these kinds of levels were previously seen at the height of the pandemic crisis in 2020 and at the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/09. Note that in the past two crises, mortgage spread widening was driven by a collapse in yields as the US economy lurches into a downturn. This time, spreads have widened as yields spiked and duration fears became acute. While US yields are likely to stay somewhat buoyant, we think that mortgage spreads could well normalize back into the 100-150bps area, even as there are lingering fears on potential MBS selling by the Fed. Accordingly, the stresses on home financing should fade to a more tolerable level (allowing housing data to stabilize), more commensurate with the amount of tightening that the Fed is currently communicating. 



Second, we wonder if the market may already be discounting an extremely bad outcome from the Chinese economy. China’s COVID zero policy is clear from the handling of the outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing. However, while there are no indications, yet that reopening is on the cards, the market might be sensitive to any positive hints. In particular, we are watching to see if there are any developments on two locally developed mRNA vaccines that have been approved for clinical trials since April. On a separate note, the authority appears to be taking some concrete steps to stabilize the real estate sector. These include a cut in mortgage rates for first-time home buyers (to 20bps below the LPR) and plans by several property developers to issue bonds which are also backed by credit-risk hedging tools. 

We see scope for the market to pare what looks to be excessive pessimism. We reckon that USD rates would stay somewhat buoyant in the immediate few months. Fed Chair Powell has since confirmed that he has no qualms driving rates above neutral in the face of elevated inflation. There would arguably be more conviction in the shorter tenors as the Fed has a greater tolerance for financial market stresses and would likely be able to continue on its hike cycle. We are somewhat neutral on longer-term USD rates, noting that there has already been a significant adjust higher since the start of the year. We think there are pay opportunities if 10Y US yields get closer to 2.80% and receive opportunities if 10Y yields gets close to / above 3.2%. Curve wise, we still have a bias towards flattening in the 2Y/10Y.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 
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