FX Daily: US CPI print might be a “buy the rumour, sell the fact”
US CPI to determine if Fed hikes 25 bps or 50 Fed on 1 Feb
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee12 Jan 2023
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DXY languished between 103 and 103.5 in the past two days after the sell-off from 105.6 on Friday. The market is reluctant to bet big on downside surprises in today’s US CPI. Consensus sees headline inflation turning negative at -0.1% MoM in December from 0.1% in November but worry about core inflation rising to 0.3% from 0.2%. Last Friday, the US unemployment rate returned to its record low of 3.5%. At last month’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that the tight labour market remains challenging to bring down inflation in non-housing related core services, which accounts for 55% of the PCE core deflator. 



Although the market has priced in a smaller 25 bps hike at the FOMC meeting on 1 February, Fed officials kept the door open for a second 50 bps hike in case inflation surprised like the monthly jobs report. Three Fed Presidents – Patrick Harker (Philadelphia), James Bullard (St Louis), and Thomas Barkin (Richmond) – will speak after the CPI release today. They should stand by last month’s Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate to rise above 5% this year from 4.25-4.5% and push back the market’s bets for rate cuts later this year. Fed believes real rates need to turn positive and stay restrictive for longer to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Hence, pay attention to tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s inflation expectations data.

Beyond the US data, markets need to navigate the weaker global growth outlook this year. Next week, global recession fears will be high at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on 16-20 January. The IMF started the new year with a dire prediction that a third of the world economy would be in recession in 2023. The World Bank downgraded its 2023 global growth forecast to 1.7% from the 3% projected last June. The World Bank did not rule out a global recession on higher interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions. Apart from persistent trade and tech tensions between the US and China, trading partners have accused the EU of protectionism over its carbon tax plan. 



Like it or not, many currencies – CHF, THB, SGD, KRW, EUR, NZD, JPY, MYR, and HKD – are already stronger than levels seen at the Fed’s first 75 bps hike in June. Mindful that externally-dependant Asian currencies must pay attention to weaker exports, not just slowing inflation.  Despite reopening hopes in China, CNY has retraced most of its August-November losses, with importers starting to pick up the greenback on the cheap. Considering laggards such as INR, PHP, and IDR might be viable.

Quote of the day
“Your desires and true beliefs have a way of playing blind man’s bluff. You must corner the inner facts.”
     David Seabury

12 January in history
The first long-distance radio message was broadcast from the Eiffel Tower in Paris in 1908.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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